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標題: 攻擊-防禦平衡概念的重新思考
Rethinking of Offense-Deffense Balance
作者: 楊仕樂
Yang, Shih-yueh
關鍵字: Offense-Defense Theory
Offense-Defense Balance
出版社: 國際政治研究所
摘要: 本文意在釐清攻擊-防禦平衡的定義,尋找出影響攻擊-防禦平衡的主要因素,並且進一步企圖解釋這些因素如何影響攻擊-防禦平衡,而能對攻擊-防禦平衡的狀態作一適當的陳述。本文以Robert Jervis最初的觀念出發,引進了戰爭論中對於攻擊、防禦的討論,對「攻擊」、「防禦」與「攻擊-防禦平衡」的定義作澄清。本文嘗試以技術因素與地理因素來解釋攻擊-防禦平衡狀態的變動。技術因素包括載臺易毀性、機動力與攔截成本,地理因素則包括正面寬度、地形與距離。 在時間上本文以1914至1991年為研究範圍,其間選取了兩次大戰中在歐洲的西部戰線、東部戰線與義大利戰線,以及第三、第四次中東戰爭中的西奈(Sinai)半島與戈蘭高地(Golan Heights)等共五個區域,每個區域在時間上前後各選擇一個時段,總共十個案例,來進行比較研究。研究發現,本文的推論獲得十個案例中八個案例的證明,有兩個案例不支持本文的推論,不過這可能是部隊素質與指揮決策兩項因素所致,亦非本文排除的因素所能解釋。由此可見,技術與地理因素對於攻擊-防禦平衡狀態的變動,仍具有相當程度的解釋能力。
This thesis has four purposes. First is to redefine the meaning of “the Offense-Defense Balance”, second is to find out what factors influence “the Offense-Defense Balance”, third is to explain how these factors influence “the Offense-Defense Balance”, and fourth is to describe the status of “the Offense-Defense Balance” appropriately. The thesis bases on Robert Jervis' “the Offense-Defense Theory” and the arguments of the classic piece “On War.” The author tries to redefine the meaning of “offense”, “defense”, and “the Offense-Defense Balance”. In addition, the thesis tries to adopt geographic factor and technologic factor to explain the variance of “the Offense-Defense Balance”. Geographic factor contains: width, range, and terrain, and technological factor contains: the vulnerability of fighting platform, mobility, and the cost of intercepting strategic projectile. The time scope of the thesis is from 1914 to 1991. During this period, the thesis selects the following cases: the western front, eastern front, and Italian front of two World Wars, Golan Heights and Sinai Peninsula in the six-day war and Yom Kippur war. The author finds that eight out of ten cases can support the argument of the thesis. In other words, geographic and technologic factors can fully explain the variance of “the Offense-Defense Balance.”
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