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標題: 美中對伊核問題政策立場之比較研究(2005-2011)
A Comparative Study on U.S. and China's Policies toward Iran Nuclear Issues,2005-2011
作者: 吳依蓁
Wu, Yi-Zhen
關鍵字: 伊核問題
Iran Nuclear Issues
Political Systems Theory
Identical Interests
Conflicting Interests
Complementary Interests
出版社: 國際政治研究所
摘要: 根據2007年美國公布的《國家情報評估》指出,伊朗可能在2010-2015年間生產出足夠製造核武的高濃縮鈾。縱觀以往美中關係,兩國在伊核問題上並非常有一致的看法,但雙方都是伊核問題的「利益攸關方」。因此,本文擬將美中當作兩個「政治系統」進行分析,希冀藉由David Easton的「政治系統論」概念,透過分析美中兩國決策系統的各種「輸入項」,如國內因素(包括政治、經濟、軍事等)、國際因素(與國際大國等),以歸納出其對美中決策系統之影響,並藉此瞭解美中兩國在面對伊核問題時所產出的「輸出項」,亦即外交政策與作為。此外,本文將進一步以共同利益、衝突利益和互補利益等三種利益做為分析指標,藉此評估美中對伊核問題的政策走向。最後,本文發現在伊核問題上,美國核心利益是以「安全領域」為重,中國核心利益是以「經濟領域」為優先,這表示美中在伊核問題上存在著結構性限制,就現階段而言,衝突利益大於共同和互補利益;雙方在伊核政策上,也將以消極合作、積極對抗的模式演繹未來政策走向,最終「同床異夢」將可能取代「求同存異」。
According to the 2007 NIE Report, Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during 2010-2015. U.S. and China on the Iran Nuclear Issues do not share the same views, but both sides are the "stakeholders" of the issue. Therefore, this study intends to view U.S. and China as two political systems, which derived from David Easton's Political Systems Theory. It will analyze the inputs such as domestic and international factors in order to find out how they affect U.S. and China's decision systems, and understand the outputs such as these countries' foreign policies and behaviors. Moreover, this study will take three types of interests - identical interests, conflicting interests, and complementary interests as the indicators for analyses, with an aim to evaluate the future of U.S. and China's policies toward Iran nuclear issues. Finally, this thesis figures out that the core interest of U.S. is based on security considerations, while China focuses more on economic interests. This indicates that U.S. and China on the Iran Nuclear Issues have some structural constraints on this stage, the conflicting interests is prior to the identical interests and complementary interests, and the two sides are going to have a passive cooperation and active confrontation pattern to develop their Iran nuclear policy. This shows that there are structural limitations in U.S.-China relations, which would turn out with “same bed, different dreams” rather than “seeking common grounds while reserving differences”.
Appears in Collections:國際政治研究所



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