Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/18807
標題: 兩岸舞弊案例分析與舞弊因子之探討
A Study on the Fraud Modeling and Fraud Drivers Between Taiwan and Mainland China
作者: 鄭嘉瑋
CHENG, CHIA-WEI
關鍵字: Financial Statement Fraud
財務報表舞弊
Fraud Factor
Logit Model
China
舞弊因子
Logit模型
中國大陸
出版社: 會計學研究所
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摘要: 2001年美國能源界龍頭恩隆 (Enron) 因舞弊而宣告破產,緊接著國內又爆發以博達案為首多起科技類股弊案。反觀對岸中國大陸的銀廣廈(Guangxia)財報造假事件,突顯出上市公司的財務報告舞弊問題十分嚴重。有鑑於此,本研究以財務指標以及現金流量指標,運用Logit迴歸模型來比較、分析博達前和博達後,以及台灣及大陸地區舞弊因子之不同。 本研究之實證結論顯示,博達前的舞弊因子為流動比率、存貨週轉率、應收帳款週轉率、現金利息保障倍數以及現金流量對銷貨收入是呈現顯著負相關。與一般財務危機公司財務比率差異不大。博達後的舞弊因子,股東權益對固定資產比率、總資產報酬率、存貨週轉率、總資產週轉率及股東權益週轉率皆達到顯著正相關水準。意味著,博達後的虛飾財報手法不斷翻新,甚至財報表現比正常公司還亮眼。 大陸方面的舞弊因子以股東權益對固定資產的比率和存貨週轉率呈顯著正相關,而與負債比率、淨資產收益率、應收帳款週轉率和現金利息保障倍數是顯著負相關。主要是由於資金短缺乃目前中國大陸大多數公司面臨的主要財務困境,因此以操縱盈餘手法,取得新股發行資格要求。
With several witnesses such as Enron's bankruptcy in USA, Boda's collapse in Taiwan and Guangxia's accounting scandal in China, fraud problem has never been a single issue but has been spreading out to be a global focus. Therefore, this research uses financial indicators and cash flow indicators via the application of a logit regression to analyze the differences in fraud drivers between the periods of pre and post Boda's collapse as well as between the countries of Taiwan and Mainland China. The empirical results show that the fraud drivers of pre-Boda are those of current ratio, inventory turnover, receivable turnover, cash interest coverage and cash flow to sales which have been found negatively significant. This finding is consistent with the results of financial crisis studies, indicating that a success in fraud detection might lead to a success in financial crisis prevention within pre-Boda era. At the time of post-Boda, however, the risk drivers of owner''s equity with fixed ratio, return on total assets, inventory turnover, assets turnover, equity turnover are significantly positive to fraud presence. It means that techniques to manipulate financial statements are continuous renewing after Boda's collapse, sometimes the financial records showed by fraud companies are even better than healthy ones. In addition, the fraud drivers in China are much related to those of owner's equity with fixed ratio, inventory turnover, debt ratio, return on net assets, receivable turnover and cash interest coverage. The first two risk factors are positively but the rest are negatively related to fraud presence. It happened because that the deficiency in capitals is an essential problem faced by the majority of companies in China, earnings manipulation thus become the way to qualify themselves to issue new stocks.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/18807
其他識別: U0005-2108200622183100
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-2108200622183100
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