Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: `http://hdl.handle.net/11455/22720`
 標題: A Study on Prediction and Warning System of Mule Duck Farm Price in Taiwan臺灣土番鴨產地成鴨價格預警系統之研究 作者: 梁恩智Liang, En-CHih 關鍵字: Mule Duck土番鴨Farm PricePrice FormationBox-JenkinsApproachMarkov AnalysisGrey System PredectionManagement Information SystemWarning and Prediction System產地價格價格形成Box-Jenkins方法馬可夫分析灰色系統預測管理資訊系統預警系統 出版社: 行銷學系 摘要: 本文擬藉由價格形成過程與產地實地訪查，找出疑似造成臺灣土番鴨產地成鴨價格波動的因素。經由一般統計檢定與Box-Jenkins方法計算，本文運用四種價格預測模式： 1.複迴歸預測模式 2.結構計量模式與時間數列分析方法 3.馬可夫分析 4.灰色系統預測 同時，並計算臺灣土番鴨事後模擬(歷史性模擬)與事後預測產地成鴨價格。基於確定因素與不確定因素及資訊經濟學(G.J. Stigler, Nobel Price of Economics, 1982)，本文結合管理資訊系統，並放置上述四種價格預測模式於決策子系統，建構臺灣土番鴨產地成鴨價格預警系統，企在未來提供臺灣土番鴨產地成鴨作業控制資訊、管理控制資訊、策略規劃資訊。This study imposes the process of farm market formation and the village investigation of farm market to find out simulative factors which cause farm price fluctuation for Taiwan Mule Duck. By the results of general statistic test and Box-Jenkins approach, this paper adopts four price predictive models which are: 1. Multivariate Normal Linear Regression Model; 2. Multiple Time Series and Systems of Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model (Structural Form); 3. Markov Analysis; and 4. Grey System Prediction GM(1,1) and GM(2,1) Meanwhile, this study calculates ex-post simulation (historical simulation) and ex-post forecast farm price of Taiwan Mule Duck by the models. Base on certain and uncertain factors as well as the Economics of Information (G.J. Stigler, Nobel Price of Economics, 1982), this paper applies Management Information System (MIS) and put four price predictive models having been referred into the Decision System, sub-system, to construct farm price prediction and warning system for offering the industry of Taiwan Mule Duck Operational Control Information, Managerial Control Information, and Strategic Planning Information in the future. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/22720 Appears in Collections: 行銷學系所

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