Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/24166
標題: 中小企業信用保證貸款違約行為之實證研究
An Empirical Study on the Default of The Small and Medium Enterprise Credit Guarantee Loan
作者: 陳昭賢
Chen, Jau-Shyan
關鍵字: small and medium
中小企業
credit guaranteed loans
default
信用保證貸款
違約行為
出版社: 高階經理人碩士在職專班
摘要: 摘要 本研究以來自各金融機構中小企業保證貸款發生違約之樣本,以中小企業發生財務危機之前一年財務比率及相關非財務性指標為研究範圍,比較中小企業信用保證貸款違約行為的各項影響變數並依保證對象、送保比率、企業規模等樣本分類、分別以羅吉斯迴歸模型(logistic regression)實證分析,其結果如下: 在財務比率分析面, 實證顯示淨利率愈高,愈易發生首次送保違約之風險,負債比率對於實收資本額低於500萬元以下的企業則呈負相關,顯示較小規模的企業,雖然負債比率高,但發生首次送保違約的風險較低。 在非財務構面,實證顯示營授比愈高愈不易發生首次送保違約,至於核貸利率對於送保比率高於60%以上及實收資本額低於500萬元以下的樣本皆呈負向關係,表示規模較小的企業寧願付出較高的借款成本,以化解首次送保違約風險。核貸利率變數呈正負相關,也反應首位融資銀行與非首位融資銀行的授信決策之差異。 整體而言,負債比率、送保金額、總送保比率、總營授比是影響中小企業信用保證貸款違約行為的重要變數。 關鍵字:中小企業、信用保證貸款、違約行為
Abstract This study is based on the samples of SME default loans in various financial institutions. The research scope involves the financial ratios and related non-financial indices that exist in the year before the SMEs' financial crises. It compares various variables affecting the default of SME credit guaranteed loans, and classified by the samples of eligible clients, ratio of application for credit guarantee, scale of enterprises, etc. to analyze by practical verification with logistic regression model respectively. The results are as follows: In the aspect of financial ratios, it suggests that the higher the net profit is, the easier the risks of default for first-time application for credit guarantee occur. The debt ratios represent negative correlation to the SMEs whose paid-in capital is less than NT$5 million. It indicates that the debt ratios of smaller enterprises are high, the risks of default in an agreement for the first-time application for credit guarantee from them are lower though. In the aspect of non-financial factors, it proves the higher the first default rate. The higher the ratio of outstanding loans for short-term working capital to the recent annual sales, the less are the chances of default in an agreement for the first-time application for credit guarantee. As for the interest rates approved, it indicates negative relation in the samples of application percentage for credit guarantee that is above 60% and in the samples of paid-in capital that is less than NT$5 million. It represents that smaller enterprises tend to pay out higher cost of loan to elude the risk of default in an agreement for the first-time application for credit guarantee. Variables in approved loan interests show positive and negative correlated. This also reflects the difference of credit extending policies between the primary loaning banks and the non-primary loaning banks. On the whole, the debt ratio, amount guaranteed, general ratio of application for credit guarantee, and general ratio of outstanding loans for short-term working capital to the recent annual sales are the major variables affecting the default on credit guaranteed loans. Key words: Small & Medium Enterprise/SME(s), credit guaranteed loans, default (in an agreement)
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/24166
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