請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/25141
標題: 油氣探採即時資訊管理系統引進研究:德菲法之應用
A Study on the Implementation of the Real-Time Information Management System for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production:Application of Delphi Method
作者: 陳耀輝
Chen, Yaw-Huei
關鍵字: 德菲法
the Delphi method
台灣中油公司
油氣探採即時資訊管理系統
風險減損
探採知識庫
CPC Corp
Taiwan
the Real-time Information Management System for Oil and Gas E&P
risk impairmen
E&P knowledge
出版社: 高階經理人碩士在職專班
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摘要: 台灣礦產資源有限,為確保國內石油穩定供應,台灣中油公司(以下簡稱中油)除了與國外簽訂油氣長期供應契約,並建造油氣煉製與輸儲設備外,數十年來持續進行台灣陸上、海域及國外的油氣探勘與生產工作。因應近年油價飆漲震盪,油氣探採作業需強化管理,總公司更需即時掌控動態。本研究應用「德菲法」探討中油引進「油氣探採即時資訊管理系統」的關鍵因素。 本研究對中油主導油氣探採業務之探採事業部前任與現任執行長以上位階之「決策群」,共計7位,以及具油氣探採經驗之「專業群」,共計39位,以德菲法進行兩輪問卷。其中「專業群」再以不同年齡分為「初階組」、「中階組」、「高階組」,及另以不同職能分為「國外組」、「測勘組」、「鑽探組」、「採油組」、「海域組」、「資訊組」、「後勤組」、「評核組」。第一輪針對「決策群」與「專業群」分別進行問卷調查,統計迴歸分析後,進行第二輪「決策群」問卷。 第一輪「決策群」問卷分析結果顯示:(1)「資訊回報時效」分別與「作業溝通時差」、「駐地與總部智庫協同作業」有顯著的相關性,(2)「主管期望與實務」分別與「技術應用與進展」、「危機處理與費用」相關性顯著。(3)「技術應用與進展」分別與「危機處理與費用」、「合約與預算關連」相關性亦顯著。顯示「決策群」所在意的是能即時掌控資訊、面對危機並處置風險減損,也關心油氣探採技術的發展與應用。 第二輪「決策群」問卷分析結果顯示:(1)中油現有油氣探採知識庫的「豐富度」與「實用性」相關性顯著。(2)「人才庫及主管充分發揮功能」分別與「即時生產管控系統之參照程度」、「縮短產程,提昇潛在生產力」相關性顯著。(3)應用『油氣探採即時資訊管理系統』,在「經營決策管理面,將更有執行力」與「國際合作礦區爭取擔任經營人,更有說服力」相關性顯著。(4)「對服務公司水準信任程度」分別與中油的「探採規模及展望」、「技術層次的提昇」、「躍昇國際化的層次」有顯著的相關性。研究顯示「決策群」認可:充分運用人才庫與應用中油油氣探採知識庫之豐富度與實用性,能提昇潛在生產力。此外,服務公司水準係引進「油氣探採即時資訊管理系統」之成敗因素。引進「油氣探採即時資訊管理系統」,應可使油氣探採作業更具效率與效益,惟引進之迫切性不顯著。 本研究雖顯示中油現階段不引進「油氣探採即時資訊管理系統」,惟引發了「決策群」與「專業群」對本系統的認知,結果可提供中油經理階層參考,未來更可提供後續研究者持續鑽研與進一步探討。
Facing scarce natural resources of Taiwan, “CPC Corp. Taiwan”, hereinafter called CPC, not only awards the long-term supply contracts, but also constructs the refining, transportation and storage facilities for petroleum. Furthermore, CPC carries on oil and gas Exploration and Production (E&P) for decades in onshore, offshore and overseas. In response to the soaring oil price in recent years, CPC reinforces the management of E&P operations as well as overmasters the real-time information by headquarter, both are much more important than ever before. This thesis makes use of the Delphi method to explore the key factors on the implementation for “the Real-time Information Management System for Oil and Gas E&P” for CPC. The present research selects 7 CPC top-level “decision makers” based above the CEO level of E&P and 39 CPC “experts” with E&P experience, the said responders in two rounds of questionnaire are surveyed by Delphi method. The 39 CPC “experts” are split to junior, intermediate and senior groups by age. Additionally, who are divided into overseas, exploration, drilling, production, offshore, IT, logistics and audit groups in job. In the first-round survey, “decision makers” and “experts” are separately investigated. The second-round questionnaire only for “decision makers” that is in line with the statistical regression results of the first-round analysis. In the first-round survey, the major key factors with concern of “decision makers” for the interactive items are:(a)” Response timing” v.s. “Communication jet lag”, together with “Collaboration by field & HQ Think-tank", (b)”Top-level expectations and practices” v.s. “Technology application & development” together with “Crisis management & expense”. (c)“Technology application & development” v.s. “Crisis management & expense” together with “Contract relative with budget”. The above significant relationships show that CPC Top-level “decision-makers” who intend to dominate the information in real-time, and confront with the crisis with risk impairment, they also concern about the E&P technology development and application. In the second-round survey, the major key factors with concern of “decision makers” for the interactive items are:(a)”Richness” v.s. “Practicality” of CPC E&P knowledge database, (b)”Professional competence” v.s. “Real-time operation system” and “Enhances the potential productivity”, (c)“More executive on management” v.s. “More convince to be an operator with the said Real-Time Information Management System for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production”, (d)”Reliability for service companies” v.s. “E&P scale & outlook”, “Technology promotion”, and “Globalization”. This research shows that decision makers acknowledge the application on the abundance and fulfillment of the E&P knowledge base and utilize the elite pool those will enhance the potential productivity. Specifically, the service companies’ abilities are actually the major influence factors in success on the implementation for the “System”. And the successful implement the real-time system shall induce the effectivity and benefit of E&P, whereas the implement of urgency is not significant. Although this study shows CPC doesn’t need to implement “the Real-time Information Management System for Oil and Gas E&P” at the present stage. However, it has ignited perception for the system of "decision makers" and "experts". The results can provide a good basis for the managerial staff as a reference, and strengthen related researches in the future.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/25141
其他識別: U0005-0207201310252200
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-0207201310252200
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