Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27189
標題: 氣候變遷下沙塵暴對呼吸系統疾病之經濟影響
Estimating the Economic Impacts of Dust Storm on Respiratory Disease under Climate Change
作者: 黃志偉
Huang, Chih-Wei
關鍵字: Dust storm
沙塵暴
Respiratory disease
Economic loss
呼吸系統疾病
經濟損失
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 由於人類不斷拓展生活範圍,在經濟上的發展,雖然帶來富裕的生活,卻也造成環境及生態的破壞,近年氣候變遷的程度及規模漸漸加大,導致乾旱日益嚴重、加速沙漠化,使其發生頻率和強度有明顯增加的趨勢,大氣中PM10濃度隨之上升,呼吸系統疾病病例增加,對人類健康造成威脅以及無謂損失,因此本研究針對臺灣受沙塵暴侵襲對呼吸系統疾病之影響與其經濟損失做一分析。 本研究採用兩階段最小平方法(two-stage least squares)去分析沙塵暴下PM10與呼吸系統疾病死亡人數之相關性,得出PM10濃度與呼吸系統疾病死亡數有正向關係且顯著,以北部地區受影響最為嚴重,數據為當PM10濃度增加1 μg/m3時,呼吸系統疾病死亡人數會增加0.2828人,中部、南部與東部的數據分別為0.1306人、0.0644人與0.1914人。 在經濟損失方面,利用國內文獻生命價值整理可得知臺灣民眾對死亡風險的願付價值為5,448萬元至1億3,943萬元,利用此數據進行情境模擬估計每年不同沙塵暴發生次數下(5次、10次、15次、20次)對呼吸系統疾病死亡之經濟損失,以北部的損失最為嚴重,最小值為32億7,073萬元,最大值為334億8,485萬元;得到全臺灣的結果為最小值為59億2,756萬元,最大值為606億84,74萬元。 根據國外生命價值文獻整理之數據,採用Multi-Level Model估計出臺灣的生命價值為5,568萬463元,進行情境模擬估計每年不同沙塵暴發生次數下對呼吸系統疾病死亡之經濟損失,全臺灣損失最小值為60億5,873萬元,最大值為242億3,493萬元,影響最為嚴重的北部地區其損失最小值為33億4,311萬元,最大值為133億7,244萬元。
The major purpose of this thesis is to estimate the economic impacts of dust storm on respiratory disease in Taiwan. A two-stage least square approach is applied to analyze the correlation between PM10 and mortality of respiratory diseases under the outbreak of dust storm. The empirical results show that there is significantly positive correlation between PM10 and the mortality of respiratory diseases. Taking the most serious north region as an example, the empirical outcome shows the respiratory disease mortality will increase by 0.2828 people when concentration of PM10 increases by 1 μg/m3. Later, the alternative frequency of dust storm is simulated in order to estimate the potential effects of dust storm on the mortality of respiratory diseases. To estimate the economic loss of such effects due to the increasing frequency of dust storm, a metal-analysis using Multi-Level Model approach is applied. The empirical results indicate that the economic loss of dust storm by different frequency for each year is ranged from 6.059 NT$ billion to 24.235 NT$ billion.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27189
其他識別: U0005-0607201116065800
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