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The relationship between export rice prices, wholesale prices, and farm-gate paddy prices in Vietnam
|關鍵字:||Granger causality test|
Johansen co-integration test
|引用:||中文文獻 李樹甘, 林志輝 (2005). “粵港經濟關係互為影響的實證分析” 。香港樹仁學院經濟學系 (Hong Kong Shue Yan College, Economics Department – Working paper series). 宋安德（2010）“臺灣稻米市場白米和稻殼價格互動之研究”。臺灣佛光大學 經濟學系碩士論文。 English literatures (1) Books Agifood Consulting International (2002). “Rice value chain study: Vietnam – A report prepared for the World Bank”. Dang Kim Son et al (2010), “Vietnam’s policy on paddy rice trade operation and development”, Institute of policy and strategy on agriculture and rural development Food prices, vulnerability and food security in Vietnam – A UN perspective (2008) Nguyen Duy Lam (2001). “Post-harvest research and development in Vietnam”. Vietnam Institute of Agricultural Engineering and Post-harvest Technology Nguyen Ngoc Que and Tran Dinh Thao (2003). “The overview of Vietnam’s rice industry”. 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College of Economy and Management, Henan Polytechnic University, P.R.C Tuong Nhu Che, Tom Kompas and Neil Vousden (2001). “Incentives and static and dynamic gains from market reforms: Rice production in Vietnam”. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 45:4, pp.547-572 Yoko Niimi, Puja Vasudeva-Dutta and L.Alan Winters (2004). “Storm in a rice bowl: Rice reform and poverty in Vietnam in the 1990s”. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 9(2), 2004:170-190 (3) Electronic Resources Tom Kompas (2002). “Market reform, productivity and efficiency in Vietnamese rice production”. International and Development Economics; http://www.crawford.anu.edu.au/degrees/idec/working_papers/IDEC04-4.pdf Vietnam Export Portal – Products introduction: http://www.vnex.com.vn/Default3.aspx?id=21|
Vietnam has been well-known as the second largest exporter of rice in the world. Most of Vietnamese farmers take part in rice production but poverty rate is quite popular in this sector, especially in the Mekong river delta, where contribute about 90% of total volume of exported rice. It seems farmers' enjoyment is not adequate to their contribution. This thesis is motivated by curiosity on the relationship among the F.O.B prices and the wholesales prices and farm-gate prices. In other words, whether rice farmers get benefit from wholesalers and exporters? This research use the weekly data of 5% broken rice and 25% broken rice from the 17th week of 2006 to the 12th week of 2011 and apply the standard Granger causality test to analyze the causal relationship among FOB, wholesale and farm-gate prices in Vietnam's rice market. The results showed that the prices of 25% broken rice are co-integrated in one market while the prices of 5% broken rice present two market levels (farm-gate price － wholesale price and wholesale price － FOB price). Granger causality test indicated that both kinds of rice had similar results. Both farm-gate price and wholesale price Granger cause FOB price but not in the reverse direction. Besides, farm-gate price Granger causes wholesale price and vice versa. These results imply that rice farmers gain the benefit from wholesalers, not from exporters. The co-integration relation suggested that Vietnam should not focus much on exporting low quality rice (25% broken rice) but higher quality rice. This could help rice farmers get benefit from exporting rice. In the case of 5% broken rice, the co-integration relation pointed out that wholesale price plays a key factor between farm-gate and FOB prices. The Government should make more effort by changing the policies to reallocate the income distribution, especially the income of wholesalers. This maybe can help to promote the prices of 5% broken rice are co-integrated in the same market, then bring benefit to rice farmers.
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