Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27494
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dc.contributor陳吉仲zh_TW
dc.contributorChi-Chung Chenen_US
dc.contributor黃玟儀zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor廖述誼zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisorShe-Yi Liaoen_US
dc.contributor.author丘媚萍zh_TW
dc.contributor.authorChiu, Mei-Pingen_US
dc.contributor.other中興大學zh_TW
dc.date2012zh_TW
dc.date.accessioned2014-06-06T07:28:14Z-
dc.date.available2014-06-06T07:28:14Z-
dc.identifierU0005-2308201111060000zh_TW
dc.identifier.citation參考文獻 一、中文部分 汪中和,2004,「臺灣降雨的長期變化及對環境的衝擊」,自然與文化研討會,行政院農業委員會林業試驗所,50-54。 吳宜昭、陳永明、朱容練,2010,「臺灣氣候必變遷趨勢」,國研科技季刊 2010年1月,40-46。 周仲島、陳永明、黃柏誠,2007,侵台颱風劇烈降雨之氣候變異分析,國科會計畫第一年成果報告。 林瑋翔、吳明進,2007,「人類是全球氣候變遷的罪魁禍首? IPCC AR4 WGI 摘要報告評介」,全球變遷通訊雜誌,第53期,21-28。 林幸君、高慈敏,2006,農業天然災害產物損失對經濟影響之區域投入產出分析,農業經濟叢刊,第12期,1005-138。 林麗蓉,2007,氣候變遷對颱洪經濟損失之估計,中興大學應用經濟研究所碩士論文。 唐琦、徐森雄,2007,臺灣南部地區農業氣象環境與災害發生潛勢,Crop, Environment & Bioinformatics 4:11-22 柳中明、吳明進、林淑華、陳盈蓁、楊胤庭、林瑋翔、曾于恆、陳正達,2008,「臺灣地區未來氣候變遷預估」,臺灣大學全球變遷研究中心。 許晃雄、柯文雄、鄒治華、陳正達,2000,「臺灣環境變遷與全球環境變遷衝擊之評析-氣候變遷」,國科會專題研究計劃成果報告。 陳吉仲,2010,「極端農業氣象災害防救措施」,全球氣候變遷與臺灣農業因應策略座談會,臺中:中興大學。 陳起鳳、林容安,2010,「IPCC情境下21世紀臺灣用水需求預測研究」,華岡農科學報,第25期,51-66。 陳星瑞,2003,颱風對臺灣稻米損失函數之估計及天然災害保險之費率計算,中興大學應用經濟研究所碩士論文。 張靜貞,2010,「極端農業氣象災害防救措施」,全球氣候變遷與臺灣農業因應策略座談會,臺中:中興大學。 游保杉,2007,臺灣地區乾旱變異趨勢與辨識研究,國科會計畫第一年成果報告。 楊純明,2010,因應氣候變遷農業調適策略座談會,國立中興大學。 盧虎生,2010,「全球氣候變遷與臺灣農糧產業因應調適策略」,全球氣候變遷與臺灣農業因應策略座談會,臺中:中興大學。 徐森雄、李錦育主編,臺灣地區氣象資料庫(北部、中部、南部、東部地區),國立屏東科技大學,屏東縣內埔鄉,民國88年6月。 馬克.林納斯(Mark Lynas),譚家瑜譯,改變世界的6℃,天下雜誌股份有限公司,台北市,民國99年4月初版。 臺灣省政府農林廳, 1947至1994年臺灣農業年報。 行政院農業委員會, 1999至2010年農業統計年報。 中央氣象局,1998至2009年氣候統計年報-地面資料。 行政院農業委員會,農業天然災害救助辦法,2000年。 二、英文部分 Elsner, J.B., J.P. Kossin, and T.H. Jagger, 2008, “The Increasing Intensity of the Strongest Tropical Cyclones,”Nature 455: 92-95. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2001. Climate Change 2001: the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007. Climate Change 2007: the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Meehl, G. A., W.M. Washington, W.D. Collins, J. M. Arblaster, A. Hu, L.E. Buja, W.G. Strand, and T. Haiyan, 2005 How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise? Science, 307: 1769-1772. The World Bank,2005 ,“Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis, Washington DC: World Bank Group.zh_TW
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11455/27494-
dc.description.abstract臺灣位處於環太平洋地區,地形多為山坡地或高山,氣候變遷影響因素相對敏感,天然災害種類多且難以防範。經由文獻回顧發現國內大多以單一災害類別(如颱風)及短期為主,尚無以長期氣候變遷與農業災損之關聯性為研究範疇。經蒐集1946至2009年臺灣16,624組氣象觀測值,分4個區域,依各災害別,以平均溫度、降水量、最大日降水量、最大風速及上期災害面積等5項為自變數,使用SPSS統計軟體,並採取最小平方估計法(OLSE)估計迴歸模型參數。實證結果,顯示在1%顯著水準下模型是顯著的。 以年平均數論,臺灣近64年平均溫度以南部24.09℃最高,中部21.92℃為最低,各地區均呈逐年增加趨勢;降水量以東部189.41毫米最高,南部149.37毫米為最低;最大日降水量以東部63.88毫米最高,南部55.84毫米為最低;最大風速以北部19.15 m/sec最高,中部7.98 m/sec為最低。農業災害損失面積大小依序為颱風10,145千公頃(67%)、豪雨(13%)、旱害(10%)、病蟲害(5%)、寒害(4%)及其他(1%)。颱風之最大風速對各地區均呈正向顯著,尤以中部最具敏感;降水量與最大日降水量對於中部及南部均呈顯著影響,致颱風之各項氣象因子對中部影響最大,而南部之颱風及豪雨仍為每年災損之主因。 為適度降低氣候變遷對農業災損之影響,本研究建議:一、管控人類過度開發利用地球資源,持續推動溫室氣體排放減量,以降低氣候變遷對農業生產之影響。二、強化氣候預報系統,供生產調控與防災救災措施參考。三、加強提升農損查報救助體系之執行成效及界定實施範圍,以減緩農民災損,協助恢復生產。四、重新檢視休耕之妥適性,輔以奬勵多樣性生產,以提高氣候變遷之緩衝力。五、研擬推行農業保險,以降低農民災害損失,確保永續農業生產力。惟本研究未按四季或節氣予以區隔,以及東部颱風次數近年呈上升趨勢,災害損失面積反而減少,尚待後續研究探討。zh_TW
dc.description.abstractAgricultural production is sensitive to climate changes in Taiwan, especially the damages caused by extreme weather events, including typhoons, heavy rainfalls, and droughts. Therefore, many studies have tried to investigate the linkages between weather factors, such as temperature and rainfalls, and agricultural output. However, most previous studies only focus on one single weather facor with short-term time series data. Because the long-term trend is basically more important than short-term variations, it is important to estimate the relationship between weather factors and agricultural damage based on long-term time series data. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between agricultural damages and the changes of weather factors in the long run. Our collected data consist of 16,624 samples from 1946 to 2009 for four regions in Taiwan. There are four major weather factors included in this study including regional mean temperature, precipitation, maximum precipitation in one day, and maximum wind speed. According to the 64 years data, the highest regional mean temperature was 24.09℃ in the southern region and the lowest was 21.92℃ in the central region with increasing mean temperature trends for all four regions. The highest precipitation was 189.41 mm in the eastern region and the lowest was 149.37 mm in the southern region. The highest maximum precipitation in one day was 63.88 mm in the eastern region and the lowest was 55.84 mm in the southern region. The highest maximum wind speed was 19.15 m/sec in the northern region and the lowest was 7.98 m/sec in the central region. The areas of agricultural damages were mainly caused by typhoon (67%), heavy rainfalls (13%), drought (10%), insects disease (5%), and extreme low temperature in winters. Based on the empirical results, four major conclusions and suggestions can be made to the policy makers: (1) There are significant relationship between the changes of weather factors and the annual area of agricultural natural hazards in all four regions; (2) The agricultural production in the central region is more sensitive to climate changes than the other three regions; (3) Because typhoon is the most hazdous weather enent for agricultural production in Taiwan, the mitigation of wind damages is very important as the strength of typhoons might increase due to global climatre change; (4) Future agricultural natual hazard mitigation policy should be based on the specific features in each individual region instead of the current general mitigation policy.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究範圍 3 第三節 研究架構與流程 4 第二章 文獻回顧 7 第一節 氣候變遷之過去、現況與未來 7 第二節 農業天然災害與救助制度之現況 21 第三節 氣候變遷對農業天然災害之影響 26 第三章 研究方法 29 第一節 資料來源與定義 29 第二節 氣候變遷與農業損失模式之建立 31 第三節 實證模型 32 第四章 實證分析 33 第一節 氣象因子資料敘述統計分析 33 第二節 農業災害損失分析 40 第三節 實證結果與分析 52 第五章 結論、建議與未來研究方向 62 第一節 結論 62 第二節 建議 65 第三節 未來研究方向 68 參考文獻 69zh_TW
dc.language.isoen_USzh_TW
dc.publisher應用經濟學系所zh_TW
dc.relation.urihttp://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-2308201111060000en_US
dc.subject氣候變遷zh_TW
dc.subjectclimatic changeen_US
dc.subject氣象因子zh_TW
dc.subject農業災損zh_TW
dc.subject災害損失面積zh_TW
dc.subject天然災害救助zh_TW
dc.subjectclimatic factoren_US
dc.subjectlost of the agricultural disasteren_US
dc.subjectlost area of the disasteren_US
dc.subjectrescue to the natural hazardsen_US
dc.title氣候變遷與臺灣農業部門氣候災害經濟損失之關聯性研究zh_TW
dc.titleInvestigating the relationship between climate change and weather related agricultural damage in Taiwanen_US
dc.typeThesis and Dissertationzh_TW
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