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標題: 平坦化的菲力普曲線:通貨膨脹與失業率的動態抵換與預測
The Flattening Phillips Curve: Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off and Forecast
作者: 何芸臻
Ho, Yun-Chen
關鍵字: inflation
Phillips curve
Rolling-regression analysis
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 經濟決策者在物價穩定與充分就業兩大經濟目標中,菲力普曲線(Phillips curve)是抉擇通貨膨脹及失業之抵換關係,最常運用的分析方法。近年來由於全球新興國家經濟起飛,對原油及原物料需求增加,引發全球性通膨危機。台灣為小型開放性經濟體系,國內物價易受進口物價影響;近年失業率受產業外移及全球經濟衰退影響,有逐年增加趨勢,因此,本研究嘗試建構原始的菲力普曲線模型及擴充的菲力普曲線模型,利用台灣1981-2010年消費者物價指數及失業率季資料,採滾動迴歸分析法,找出台灣的菲力普曲線之趨勢是否已隨著時間出現變化,並進一步以擴充的菲力普曲線模型進行樣本外通貨膨脹預測。 研究結果顯示台灣存在著一條負斜率之菲力普曲線,驗證失業率與通貨膨脹存在抵換關係,惟台灣的菲力普曲線呈現隨著時間呈現平坦化趨勢,通貨膨脹及失業率之抵換關係下降,使央行欲維持物價穩定,可能導致失業率大幅上升,增加政策成本。建議央行採行貨幣政策穩定通膨時,應將菲力普曲線平坦化現象納入考量,並配合使用其他貨幣工具,減少政策實行成本,達到預期效果。
Price stability and full employment are the two major economic goals for the economic policy makers. Phillips curve is the most commonly used method to analysis between inflation and unemployment trade-off relationship. In recent years, because of emerging countries economic take-off, and increase demand for crude oil and raw materials lead to global inflation. Taiwan is a small open economy, and domestic prices are vulnerable to import prices. Additionally, due to industry relocation and the global economic recession, unemployment rates increase year by year. Therefore, we attempt to construct both original Phillips curve model and the expansion Phillips curve model, and use Rolling regression analysis. We want to identify whether the Taiwan''s Phillips curve trend change over time, and forecast inflation by using out-of-sample forecasting. The results indicate Taiwan''s Phillips curve is a negative slope, and verifying the trade-off relationship between unemployment and inflation. However, Taiwan''s Phillips curve shows a flat trend over time, it means inflation and unemployment rate trade-off relationship decline. When the Central Bank maintains price stability, may lead to significant increase in the unemployment rate and the cost of policies. In order to achieve the policy objectives, we recommend Central Bank takes Phillips curve flattening phenomenon into consideration when implement monetary policy, and could adopt other monetary tools to reduce the cost of policy implementation.
其他識別: U0005-2507201109364400
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系



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