Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27563
標題: 評估氣候變遷對腸病毒重症之經濟影響-以台灣地區為例
Estimating the Economics Impacts of Climate Change on Enterovirus Disease: Evidence from Taiwan
作者: 陳國良
Chen, Kuo-Liang
關鍵字: climate change
氣候變遷
enterovirus
panel data model
腸病毒
縱橫資料模型
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 近年來,人類為了追求更好的物質生活享受,透過各種方法不斷改變地球面貌,導致許多自然災害事件層出不窮,其中以氣候變遷之災害影響最為人類所知。然而,氣候變化對傳染病的經濟影響在實證研究上卻相當缺乏。因此本研究目的試圖探討台灣地區氣候變遷與腸病毒重症之間的關係,再者進一步估計氣候變化對傳染病之經濟影響。 為了達到研究目的,應用縱橫資料模型(Panel Data Model)估計氣候因子、社經變數與腸病毒重症之間的關聯性。結果發現,平均溫度、累積降雨量及0~4歲幼童人口數為正向顯著關係,且平均溫度對於腸病毒重症增幅程度之影響明顯大於其他條件。利用實證結果可知,當溫度變化1℃,腸病毒重症感染人數會增加約0.05人,根據IPCC (2001)估計至2100年全球平均氣溫將會增加1.4℃~5.8℃,溫度變異程度也增加4%~7%,本研究計算出腸病毒重症受氣候變遷影響將增加0.002%~0.0085%。綜上所述,建議除了追求經濟發展以外,也應多重視氣候變遷的問題,應以永續發展為最高原則。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27563
其他識別: U0005-2508201123215500
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-2508201123215500
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