Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27654
標題: 臺灣鋏蠓(小黑蚊)分布之探討與危害風險分析
Distribution and Risk Analysis of the Biting Midge, Forcipomyia taiwana
作者: 郭蘋慧
Guo, Ping-Hui
關鍵字: Forcipomyia taiwana
臺灣鋏蠓
Poisson Regression
Climatic Factors
Spatial Autocorrelation
Spatial Statistic
小黑蚊
氣象因子
卜瓦松迴歸
空間相關
空間統計
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 臺灣鋏蠓(Forcipomyia taiwana)俗稱小黑蚊,為ㄧ種嗜吸人血的昆蟲,目前已經成為臺灣嚴重的「騷擾性害蟲」之一,被叮後奇癢無比,造成民眾生活品質與觀光休閒活動的危害。本研究使用臺灣鋏蠓長期監測調查資料,推估可能影響其棲群密度之氣象因子、地理及人群因素,迴歸結果顯示當月溫度、前月濕度、當月降雨日數及觀光人口數對臺灣鋏蠓有顯著正相關,而與當月風速、當月日照時數則呈現負相關,加上春夏季小黑蚊明顯高於冬季,應該從冬季開始進行防治,徹底阻斷其春夏季猖獗繁殖之機會。 又因地區的氣候、環境等具高度相關性,本研究以臺灣全島349個鄉鎮區密度調查資料對臺灣鋏蠓於全島分布進行空間分析。首先,使用空間統計方法計算全區域臺灣鋏蠓分布的空間相關程度,並偵測高度相關之熱點地區,以辨識全區中哪些地方為臺灣鋏蠓高度空間相關的聚集區域。臺灣本島地區臺灣鋏蠓分布情形具有一定程度的空間自相關性,熱點地區大都分布於臺中縣、臺中市、南投縣、臺南縣及花蓮縣。此外,針對台灣鋏蠓三級至五級嚴重為害之調查點,以地理資訊系統進行環域分析,統計估算調查點和其鄰近區域暴露於小黑紋叮咬風險之觀光人數與居民人口。此初步之小黑紋危害的風險分析可作為政府政策參考,進行各觀光景點持續密度監控及防治,並加強民眾、觀光旅客對臺灣鋏蠓之教育及正確的防治觀念。
Forcipomyia taiwana, often mistaken for mosquitoes, is a tiny human-biting midge. Now it has endemically become a major nuisance pest in Taiwan. The nuisance due to biting and skin irritation threatens people''s quality of life and leisure activities. This study analyzes the effect of weather-related factors and local tourist numbers on the density of F. taiwana. We use regression methods to analyze the monthly collected data of F. taiwana in seven counties of Taiwan during the period of July 2008 to October 2010. The regression results show that temperature, relative humidity, rainy days, and number of tourists are positively correlated with midge density, while wind velocity and sunshine hours present negative correlation. Moreover, the population in spring and summer is much higher than in winter. Thus, pest control of the biting midge should start from winter before the outbreak in spring and summer. In addition, this study analyzes the global spatial autocorrelation and the local spatial autocorrelation to understand the spatial distribution of F. taiwana at the township level in Taiwan. The results demonstrate that the distribution of F. taiwana exhibits certain degree of spatial clustering and the spatially correlated hotspots are located in Taichung County, Taichung City, Nantou County, Tainan County, and Hualien County. Furthermore, we use the buffer analysis and overlay analysis of geographic information system to calculate how many residents and tourists are under the nuisance risk of F. taiwana for the high density midge areas. This preliminary risk analysis could provide the government with information for the pest management of F. taiwana.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/27654
其他識別: U0005-2806201117021300
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-2806201117021300
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