Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28074
標題: 氣候變遷對全球稻米市場之經濟影響
Estimating the Economics Impacts of Climate Change on Global Rice Markets
作者: 吳原禎
Wu, Yuan-Chen
關鍵字: climate change
氣候變遷
global rice market
agricultural trade
全球稻米市場
農產貿易模型
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 氣候變遷所導致的長期氣候變遷和短期的氣候變化已對全球許多國家的稻米生產造成不同的影響,根據聯合國跨國氣候變遷委員會(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , IPCC)的統計報告發現,在1988至1997年的十年當中,全球因氣候變遷而造成的經濟損失已超過2900億美元,而其中對農作物造成的損失更為劇烈。近幾年來氣候變遷對世界主要穀物產量有很大的影響,進而對全球穀物的貿易市場產生變動。再加上人口快速成長等雙重壓力之下,未來穀物的需求將面臨很大的問題。 本研究以世界主要稻米產區為討論範圍,探討氣候變遷對全球稻米貿易市場所造成之經濟影響及其可能的因應策略來做一整理和分析。要估計出此經濟價值,須包含兩個步驟,第一步驟是利用計量經濟的方法,估計出各稻米生產國家的生產函數,第二步驟則將上述所估計出的稻米生產函數之殘差項納入稻米的經濟模型中,本研究是以隨機性的世界稻米貿易模型來進行模擬。 實證結果發現,在不同氣候情境下,世界各主要稻米產區之產量各有增減,但整體而言,世界稻米總產量是減少的,而且對有些主要稻米產國,如中國、泰國、印度等影響甚深,而世界稻米貿易量、價格等也相繼受到影響。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28074
其他識別: U0005-0108200812443600
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-0108200812443600
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