Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28075
標題: 農地釋出政策對台灣整體經濟影響之研究─可計算一般均衡模型之應用
Economic impacts of Farmland Release and Conversion Policy in Taiwan-A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
作者: 洪青瑞
Jui, Hung Ching
關鍵字: Computable General Equilibrium Model
可計算一般均衡模型
Agricultural Land Conversion Scheme
Social Accounting Matrix
農地釋出方案
社會會計矩陣
出版社: 應用經濟學研究所
摘要: 我國農地釋出政策自民國84年8月實施以來,共已釋出約 3萬8千多公頃,距離「國土綜合開發計畫」中農地釋出總量之第一監控量4萬8千公頃,短期仍有約1萬公頃的農地可供釋出。本文即以此1萬公頃的農地為模擬釋出總量, 並以民國90年台灣的社會會計矩陣為均衡資料集,採用 Dervis, de Melo and Robinson (1982)所發展的CGE模型為主要架構,建構一個包含土地要素的可計算一般均衡模型,藉以模擬並探討農地資源釋出轉用至其他產業部門時,對各產業土地價格、勞動投入、資本報酬以及對整體經濟之產出、進出口量、家計所得與政府收入等可能造成的影響與效果。同時比較土地變更轉用供全體產業部門使用與僅供製造業部門使用時之個別效果上的差異。 研究結果發現:(1)農地釋出轉用將使獲得土地的產業部門其土地價格顯著下跌,生產成本下降。其中又以製造業、水電燃氣業、其他運輸業與娛樂文化服務業最為顯著。但若釋出的農地轉為工業用地僅供製造業使用,雖可提高製造業比例,改善本國產業結構,但對於其他部門的地價並無明顯抑制作用,反而使其地價上漲。(2)就整體經濟而言,農地釋出轉用使實質國民所得、家計所得、總投資額、總出口量、總進口量增加,對總體經濟有所貢獻。而政府亦可因此而增加所得稅及關稅收入而使政府所得增加,有利於財政狀況之改善。(3)對於農產業而言,釋出農地後造成農地價格上漲,土地報酬增加,且農地轉用後工商業成本降低,將可使消費者物價下降,因此在勞動報酬不變下,農民的實質所得與財富皆上升。但另一方面,農地釋出轉用後每人平均可耕作面積更形縮小,且農產業土地價格的上升,亦可能造成農業從事業者購地成本及生產成本的增加,阻礙其規模之擴大與農業競爭力。(4)依本研究模擬的結果,農地一般性釋出所造成的實質國民所得提升、家計所得增加、政府收入增加,都比僅供製造業使用的選擇性釋出成效大;但在總投資額、總出口量、總進口量的提高上,則以選擇性釋出的效果較好。
Farmland in Taiwan has been released more than 38,000 hectares into non-agriculture sector since 1995. Before hitting the first control amount (48,000 hectares), 10,000 hectares of farmland is suitable for releasing in the short run. The main purpose of this thesis is to estimate the economic impacts of such farmland release and conversion policy on Taiwan's economy. In order to capture the direct and indirect linkages between agriculture and other sectors, a general equilibrium framework following the study by Dervis, de Melo and Robinson (1982) is applied. The model distinguishes twelve production sectors and regards social accounting matrix (SAM) of Taiwan 2001 as the balanced materials. Such empirical model will be applied to estimate the economic impacts of releasing farmland. The empirical results indicate that the increasing land conversion to non-agriculture sectors will decrease land price while the production cost drops. However, if farmland is released to the manufacturing industry sector only, it will improve the national industrial structure without any significant change on land price while the real GNP, family income, total investment, export and import are all increased. The government can also increase tax and tariff to increase its' revenue. The economic impacts on agricultural sector shows that the price of farmland and land's reward goes up while the firms' production cost is reduced after releasing the farmland. This will allow consumer's price level to be dropped but rise the farmers' income as well as their wealth. On the other hand, the cultivate area for farmland is reduced and the price of land of agricultural is increased. That might lead to the purchase cost of land and the production cost of agriculture increase which may hinder enlargement of its scale and agricultural competitiveness.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28075
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