Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28190
標題: 國人抽走私香菸行為之經濟分析
Three Essays on Economics of Smoking Smuggled Cigarettes
作者: 陳信帆
Chen, Hsin-Fan
關鍵字: smuggled cigarettes
走私菸
Latent Class Model
endogenous switching model
smoking behavior
risk perceptions
socio-economic Status
潛在類別模型
內生轉換模型
吸菸行為
風險認知
社會經濟地位
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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Merriman, D., Yurekli, A., Chaloupka, F.J. 2000. How big is the worldwide cigarette smuggling problem. In: Jha Prabhat and Chaloupka Frank, eds. Tobacco Control in Developing Countries. London: Oxford University Press. P. 365-92. 16. Stead, M., MacAskill, S., Mackintosh, A.M., Reece, J., and Eadie, D. 2001. “It's as if you're locked in”: qualitative explanations for area effects of smoking in disadvantage communities. Health Place 7(4), 333-343. 17. Sung, H.Y., Hu, T.W., and Keeler T.E. 1994. Cigarette taxation and demand: an empirical model. Contemporary Economic Policy 12(3), 91-100. 18. Taylor, A.J., Langdon, M., and Campion, P. 2001. Smuggled tobacco, deprivation and addiction. European Journal of Public Health 15(4), 399-403. 19. Tsai, Y.W., Sung, H.Y., Yang, C.L., and Shih, S.F. 2003. The behaviour of purchasing smuggled cigarettes in Taiwan. Tobacco Control 12, 28. 20. Tsai, Y.W., Yang, C.L., Chen, C.S., Liu, T.C. and Chen, P.F. 2005. 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摘要: 本論文由三篇探討走私香菸議題的文章所組成,尤其著重在國人抽走私香菸行為的實證研究上。走私菸會造成政府稅收的減少之外,還會損害國人的身體健康,這是一項全世界都在討論且不容被忽視的議題。然而,抽走私香菸行為的研究並不多見,本文彌補此方面實證研究的不足,並能成為政府當局在訂定走私香菸防治策略之參考依據。 第一篇文章應用潛在類別模型(Latent Class Model)來衡量潛在抽走私菸者。此模型與過去研究常使用的二元選擇模型之最大不同處在於,潛在類別模型可以內生地將吸菸者區分出數個類別。實證結果發現潛在類別模型的配適度優於二元選擇模型;此外,抽走私菸者被區分出高傾向與低傾向兩種類別。值得我們注意的是在高傾向的吸煙者中,個人所得、教育程度以及居住地點是顯著影響抽走私菸的重要因素。 第二篇文章使用內生轉換模型(endogenous switching model)驗證個人的風險認知是否會影響其抽走私菸的決策。本研究認為個人風險認知會內生地影響抽走私菸的決策;因此,在衡量吸走私菸行為時,若視風險認知為外生,其估計結果將有偏誤。此外,過去研究運用風險認知變數皆屬於連續性的變數,本研究資料是使用二元型態的風險認知變數來進行估計。實證結果顯示,個體對「抽走私菸將危害身體健康」的風險認知,將會內生地影響其抽走私菸決策且為負向的效果。此外,吸菸者是否對「走私菸品質感到憂慮」也會影響其抽走私菸的決策。 最後一篇文章在探討在不同價格水準的菸稅課徵下,是否會改變現行吸菸者進而轉抽走私菸的行為。本研究設定了3種菸稅價格水準,在課徵低價格菸稅時,若個體選擇轉抽走私菸則屬於高敏感度的抽菸者。實證結果指出在價格高敏感度的族群中,所得較低、教育程度低以及有購買走私菸經驗的吸菸者,皆有較高的比例會轉抽走私香菸的情況發生。 綜合三篇研究的實證結果,顯示政府需重視高傾向抽走私菸族群及對菸價價格高敏感度的族群,並可依據研究結果,針對族群的特性進行防治工作。此外,個人風險認知也會影響個人抽走私菸的決策,公共衛生當局可依此,具體執行防治宣導的工作。
This dissertation is composed of three essays focusing on the issue of smuggled cigarettes in Taiwan. Specifically, I discuss the individual's behavior on smoking smuggled cigarettes. Smuggled cigarettes cause the loss of tax revenues to the government and harm people's health, besides it is an international issue for discussion and should not be ignored. However, individual smoking behavior of smuggled cigarette is little known and difficult to study due to data limitations. It is hoped that this dissertation will be an important reference for Taiwanese public health authorities to draw up policies preventing smuggled cigarettes. The first essay applies the Latent Class Model for identifying the potential smokers who either now or ever consuming smuggled cigarettes. This methodology, in contrast to traditional discrete models for smoking behavior, allows endogenously classify potential smokers who are likely inclined to smoke smuggled cigarettes. The empirical result indicates that a number of socio-demographic factors do increases the inclination to smoking smuggled cigarettes after accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity in smoking smuggled cigarettes. In particular, monthly income exhibits negatively significant effect for the higher inclination group. Both education years and southern residence play a key role in smoking smuggled tobacco for both high and low inclination group. The second essay examines whether risk perceptions affect smoking smuggled cigarettes. The endogenous switching model is utilized to evaluate the effect of risk perceptions for smoker's concern on health risk and tobacco quality, since risk perception may be endogenous with smoking smuggled cigarettes. Empirical result indicates that health risk is endogenous on smoking decision. Furthermore, smokers with more risk perceptions would be less likely to smoke smuggled cigarettes. Besides, the relevant social economic status of smokers, such as weekly cigarette expenditure, gender, age, and southern residence, are also statistically significant related to smoking smuggled cigarettes. The last paper, using Multiple Logistic Regression, evaluates whether smokers with high price sensitivity due to socio-economic disadvantages differ significantly in characteristics, and may be more inclined to smoke smuggled cigarettes. The smokers who are incline to smoke smuggled cigarettes in response to cigarette price increases are classified into three cigarette price levels. The study results show that price sensitive smokers with a personal monthly income of less than NT$10,000 have a 24% probability of being more inclined to smoke smuggled cigarettes; price sensitive smokers who are less educated have a 21% probability; and those who have experience in purchasing smuggled cigarettes have a 31% probability. It is important for government to apply different marketing strategies to different groups for prevention of smoking, especially for the focused group of low income and education level, and the government should know about their possible motivation, attitudes, behaviors and opinions of smoking smuggled cigarettes in response to price increasing.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28190
其他識別: U0005-2208200813202500
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