請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28194
標題: 我國財政支出與財政赤字關係之研究-Buchanan-Wagner假說之驗證
The relationship between government spending and public deficits in Taiwan:Testing the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis
作者: 陳怡君
Chen, Yi-Chun
關鍵字: Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis
Buchanan-Wagner 假說
real government spending
public deficits
cointegraion
vecm
華格納法則
實質政府總支出
共整合
向量誤差修正模型
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 本研究採用1974年至2006年的年資料,探討台灣地區實質政府總支出、政府賦稅收入占實質政府總支出比率、每人實質所得、私部門工資率與20歲以上總人口數等變數之間關係,使用單根檢定、Johansen的最大概似法及向量誤差修正模型等時間序列方法,檢測台灣地區政府赤字與實質政府總支出之間是否具有長期正向關係(支持Buchanan-Wagner假說)?;此外,也探討每人實質所得增加是否會帶動實質政府總支出增加?若實質政府總支出的所得彈性大於1,則表示支持華格納法則(Wagner’ s Law)。 本研究的實證結果顯示:一、上述五個變數之間具有一共整合關係,表示渠等變數之間具有長期穩定均衡關係。二、台灣地區政府赤字與實質政府總支出具有長期顯著的正向關係,即提高政府赤字會促使實質政府總支出增加,支持Buchanan-Wagner假說。三、每人實質所得增加,會帶動實質政府總支出增加,但所得彈性小於1,表示長期下華格納法則在台灣是不成立的。四、長期下公部門的生產效率低於私部門的生產效率。五、長期下實質政府總支出因人口的增加有規模經濟現象產生。
This article examines the long-run and dynamic adjusted relationship among government spending, public deficits, income, wages and adult population in Taiwan from 1974 to 2006. I employ the unit root test, Johansen max likelihood tests and vector error-correct model, as well as times series techniques appropriate, to test the effect of deficits or real government spending in long run. Otherwise, we also analyze that an increase per real GDP adds real government spending? If the income elasticity of demand for government services exceeds unity, imply to support Wagner's Law. In this paper, we find that, first, among above five variables, there is a cointegrated relationship, to indicate there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among these variables. Second, among public deficits and government spending is statistically significant positive relationship, as well as an increase public deficit adds real government spending, and in favor of Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis. Third, an increase per real GDP adds real government spending but income elasticity is less unity, this is to show there is no evidence to advocate Wagner's Law in Taiwan. Fourth, productivity performance of public sector is lower then private sector in long-run. Fifth, an increase in the adult population reduces the unit cost of supplies public services. In other words scale economies exist in the provision of public sector.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28194
其他識別: U0005-2306200820212700
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-2306200820212700
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