Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28212
標題: H5及H7禽流感對雞肉產業供應鏈之經濟影響評估
The Economic Effects of H5 and H7 Avian Influenza on Supply Chain of Chicken Industry in Taiwan
作者: 周君育
Chou, Chun-Yu
關鍵字: HPAI
高致病性禽流感
multi-market
welfare analysis
price endogenous
多層次市場
福利分析
價格內生化模型
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 當禽流感爆發時,首當其衝的就是雞肉產業,然而,政府相關單位的防疫措施及應變機制所帶來之效果,與整個產業的供應鏈有密切關聯,故本研究對象將針對國內的白肉雞、土雞與雞蛋產業,以2006年的年資料為基礎,將價格內生化模型應用於三種產業供應鏈的各個運銷階段市場,並建立其供需模型。 故本研究之目的即在探討高病原性禽流感在臺灣爆發後,對國內雞肉產業各供應鏈(即運銷通路的各階段)所帶來的衝擊,因此,利用國內雞肉產業供應鏈經濟模型,假設禽流感在臺灣發生大流行時,模擬生產量各減少10%、30%、50%和20%以及消費量各減少10%、20%、30%和50%時,對白肉雞、土雞和雞蛋三種產業的衝擊,並計算社會福利的變動。 模擬結果顯示,於模擬情況一,禽流感剛開始爆發時,白肉雞、土雞和雞蛋產業的社會總福利的效益值卻都各降低了約二千萬元。然而,在模擬情況二時,禽流感持續蔓延之際,白肉雞產業所受到的衝擊最大,社會福利的效益值下降了五千五百萬元;土雞和雞蛋產業的社會福利的衝擊較不明顯,其效益值僅下降三千萬元左右。當禽流感的疫情變得無法控制,演變為模擬情況三時,白肉雞與土雞產業的社會福利效益值也減少了七、八千萬元,而雞蛋產業的衝擊雖然沒有那樣嚴重,但其社會福利的效益值也減少一千萬元左右。當禽流感疫情慢慢回穩時,但也造成消費者對雞肉類產品的恐慌,就是模擬情況四,將會使三種產業的社會福利減低了一半以上,而社會效益值更是減少了一億元左右。 所以,我們發現禽流感的爆發將會對國內雞肉產業帶來嚴重的衝擊,若能有完善的防疫措施與因應機制,則可有效保障國內雞肉產業與消費者。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28212
其他識別: U0005-2407200813012600
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-2407200813012600
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