Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28238
標題: 氣候變遷對心血管疾病之經濟影響-以台灣地區為例
Estimating the Economics Impacts of Climate Change on Cardiovascular Disease: Evidence from Taiwan
作者: 吳偉鳴
Wu, Wei-Ming
關鍵字: Climate Change
氣候變遷
Cardiovascular Disease
Panel Data
Contingent Valuation
心血管疾病
縱橫資料模型
條件評估法
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 隨著生活習性的改變,以及人口老化的現象發生,名列國內十大死因的腦血管疾病、心臟疾病及高血壓等疾病,成為台灣公共衛生研究重點之一。然而,季節變換是誘發心血管疾病發病的因素之一,可能會因全球氣候變異而加劇疾病發生率及死亡率,這對人類健康是一大威脅。因此本研究將排除季節因子的考量,僅針對台灣氣候異常改變對心血管疾病之衝擊。 全球氣候改變對人類健康的成本是氣候變遷總成本之一,不應忽略疾病死亡及住院將間接對經濟造成衝擊。因此,在本研究中將使用Panel Data Model探討氣候變遷與心血管疾病間之關係。結果可得平均溫度、平均最低溫度和平均相對溼度與心血管死亡及住院人數間係數符號呈負向顯著;平均降雨量、寒流天數和溫度變異與心血管死亡及住院人數間係數符號呈正向顯著,而溫度變異對心血管疾病死亡及住院人數增幅程度的影響明顯大於其餘氣候條件。此外,在冬季是易誘發嚴重心血管疾病的季節,為排除心血管疾病死亡及住院是因冬季所導致,予以季節調整,結果表示因心血管疾病死亡及住院結果在冬季有顯著的季節性因素存在。而政府於84年實施健保制度後與心血管疾病死亡間之關係為負向顯著。利用實證結果可得,當溫度變化1%,死亡人數會增加約0.24%,依據許晃雄(2002)推估未來溫度變異程度將增加5%~16%,本研究計算出心血管疾病受氣候變遷影響而死亡之機率將增加1.2%~4.1%。 本研究使用條件評估法衡量台灣民眾在面對氣候異常改變時,為降低心血管疾病死亡風險1.2%~4.1%所實施的預防行為,此對經濟之衝擊程度,分別是平均每人每年願意支付的金額為1685.26元和3212.46元,而對全台民眾每年總價值損失分為291億6,751萬元和555億9,923萬元。而透過Meta-Analysis所估算台灣在2006年為降低心血管疾病死亡風險1.2%~4.1%時,人命價值介於121億8322萬元至416億2601萬元之間。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28238
其他識別: U0005-2907200816113400
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-2907200816113400
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