Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28273
標題: 評估生質能源發展對全球穀物市場之經濟影響
Estimating the Economics Impacts of Biomass Energy Development on Global Grain Markets
作者: 謝叔娉
Hsieh, Shu-Ping
關鍵字: Biomass Energy
生質能源
Energy Crop
Food Crop
Theory of Farmland Distribution
Spatial Equilibrium Model
能源作物
糧食作物
農地分配理論
空間均衡模型
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 當前國際間面臨石化燃料供應短缺的課題,首當其衝的是能源價格的飆漲,及過度排放二氧化碳引發溫室效應等現象;面對上述問題,各國開始制定新能源政策,生質能源為全球追求能源永續發展的重要策略,不僅能增加各國能源自主性,還能紓緩二氧化碳排放量。然而,在全球積極推動生質能源之餘,隱藏的糧食危機漸漸浮上檯面,包括生質能源的需求,造成能源作物土地排擠效應,導致糧食供應短缺,糧價提高等衍生問題;本研究就是以能源價格震盪為出發點,目的在模擬未來能源需求變動對穀物市場造成的經濟影響;以農地分配模型為基礎,建立全球穀物農地分配模型,並以空間均衡模型做為實證模型對穀物進行模擬。 實證結果發現,就糧食作物而言,當生質能源的產量逐年增加時,兩種情境下的糧食作物產量比基期年來的少,顯示能源作物排擠了糧食作物的生產面積,導致產量下跌的現象,連帶著稻米與小麥進口國家的市場價格居高不下,兩種糧食作物市場的社會福利也逐年遞減,再次印證發展生質能源對於糧食市場的威脅。 在能源作物市場,玉米原為部份國家民眾的主食,還有很大的比例拿來餵食牲畜,大豆則是用來製造食用油,現在此兩種作物還能做為生質能源的原料,由模擬結果來看,因能源政策的推動,生質能源的產量成長巨幅,原料玉米與大豆的生產同樣逐步上升,但由於地球暖化效應,世界各地常出現異常的氣候現象,使農業環境受到威脅,加上新興市場對糧食需求日趨強勁,有鑑於此,各國開始產生保護主義,限制出口、提高關稅、配額管制等貿易政策,由貿易量的模擬結果也可以看出,玉米與大豆的全球貿易量降幅相當劇烈,連帶著玉米與大豆的市場價格,不管在進口國家或是出口國家,皆水漲船高,另外在供給與需求兩面的同時拉檯下,此兩種作物市場的社會福利也日益增加。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28273
其他識別: U0005-1208200915403100
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-1208200915403100
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