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標題: 國際肥料價格波動之分析及市場結構之估計
Analyzing the Volatility of Global Fertilizer Price with Marketing Structure Estimation
作者: 陳晉成
Chen, Jin-Cheng
關鍵字: Volatility
Marketing Structure
Conjectural Variation
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 近年來,全球人口成長的持續增加,引發糧食不足之危機,造成國際糧食價格飆漲,且激勵農田種植耕地面積的擴大,進而帶動國際肥料的需求;由於原油乃為化學肥料原物料與運輸的主要原料與燃料,面對持續不斷攀升之原油價格,本研究以國際肥料價格與原油價格為出發點,使用時間序列G(ARCH)模型模擬其波動行為;並利用猜測變量方法估計國際肥料市場之結構。 實證結果顯示,其一利用波動模型分析2003年至2007年全球磷酸一銨、尿素、液氨、磷酸、磷礦石、氯化鉀六種肥料供給價格及原油價格波動,並估計原油價格波動對肥料波動之影響,實證結果顯示磷酸一銨波動模型為ARMA(3,2)-GARCH(1,1),尿素波動模型為ARMA(3,2)-GARCH(0,1),原油波動對此兩種肥料價格有顯著正向之影響。其二利用猜測變量模型估計國際肥料市場之結構,實證結果顯示尿素市場之猜測變量值為0.009347,為一Cournot-Nash均衡,若當市場的結構模擬為完全競爭市場時,其福利值將比寡占市場下的福利值增加了7百萬美元。
其他識別: U0005-2912200915453700
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系



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