Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28456
標題: 農作物天然災害損失之空間分析 -台灣農業風險管理之應用
Spatial Analysis of Crop Losses Caused by Natural Disasters -Application for Risk Management Tools in Taiwan
作者: 蘇怡如
Su, Yi-Ju
關鍵字: Natural Disasters
天然災害
Systemic Risk
Spatial Dependence
Spatial Statistics
Crop Insurance
系統性風險
空間相依性
空間統計
農作物保險
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 天然災害如颱風、豪雨等往往於短時間內造成大範圍相鄰地區的農業損失,此系統性風險問題被認為是農作物保險難以發展的重要原因。因地區的氣候、環境、和土壤條件等具高度相關性,系統性風險主要源自於農作物生產的空間相依性。因此,本研究調查農作物產量和天然災害損失狀況的空間相依性,以分析台灣地區農作物保險的潛在系統性風險。 台灣縣市地區及雲嘉彰鄉鎮地區的農作物種類分成稻米、蔬菜、水果與其他等四種,使用空間統計方法分析產量與災害損失的空間相依性,並探討相依性的時空分佈變化。採三方面的空間統計分析技術用以檢視空間相依性之結構: (1)計算全區域產量與災損的空間自相關程度,評估此區域加總的系統性風險程度的大小。(2)偵測農作物產量與災損高度相關的熱點地區,以辨識全區域中哪些地方聚集高度顯著的系統性風險。(3)分析產量與災損的空間相依性如何隨距離的增加終而消失,以探討如何鎖定區域範圍進行有效的風險分攤。 台灣縣市地區和雲嘉彰鄉鎮地區各類農作物的產量,具有相當程度的空間自相關,且其系統性風險之時空分布穩定。然而,農作物災害損失的空間相依性分析結果顯示,相鄰地區各類作物之災害損失的系統性風險並不是太高,系統性風險程度和空間分佈逐年皆不穩定。因此,本研究推測農作物災害損失,應可藉擴大不同地區和種類的農作物風險組合而被有效的分攤。
Taiwan is annually afflicted by several natural disasters (mainly typhoons) which destroy crops and food resources. Crop losses are often driven by the occurrence of spatially correlated adverse weather events which systemically affect a large number of farms over a wide geographic area. Systemic risk in agriculture can refer to the spatial dependence of crop yields extensively stemming from correlated weather, soil patterns, and other geographically related factors. This study thus investigates the spatial dependence of crop yields and losses caused by natural disasters to analyze potential systemic risk in developing Taiwan's crop insurance. The study takes a spatial statistics approach to conducting an exploratory time-space data analysis for understanding spatial dependence patterns of crop yields and losses. Crops are classified into four groups: rice, fruits, vegetables, and other crops. Specifically, three spatial aspects will be analyzed: (1) extent of spatial dependence of crop yields and losses over the entire region, as a predictor of the magnitude of aggregated systemic risk in the region, 2) geographic hotspots of highly correlated crop yields and losses, which identify the locations in the region under significant systemic risks, 3) the rate of spatial dependence decay over space, to explore how to bound geographic areas for effective risk pooling. The results show certain degree of the overall spatial dependence in crop yields at both the county and township level. In addition to steady aggregated systemic risk in crop yields, the clustered hotspots of crop yields are distributed similarly over time and space. On the other hand, the aggregated systemic risk of crop losses is highly fluctuated over time at both the county and township level. The spatial dependence patterns of crop losses look pretty random, implying the possibility of effective risk pooling through the combinations of different crops and production areas.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28456
其他識別: U0005-1708201023222400
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-1708201023222400
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