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標題: 評估氣候因子與總體經濟條件對死亡率之影響-以OECD主要城市為例
Estimating Impacts of Climatic Factors and Macroeconomic Conditions on Mortality in OECD Major Cities
作者: 陳品宇
Chen, Pin-Wu
關鍵字: Climate Change
Panel Data Model
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 近年來,經濟活動快速成長,人類不斷地改變地球的地質,生物,以及生態環境系統,導致大規模的自然災害事件一一浮現,其中,尤以氣候變遷在這些全球環境變遷災害中最為人所熟知,若人類持續恣意地排放溫室效應氣體,將會導致地球氣候長期改變,人類所面對的全球氣候變遷所造成的環境危害程度大幅地增加,造成全球損失規模雖不一,但這些災害對於人類的生命健康都會造成重大的影響。所得與健康為評估一國經濟以及社會福利重要的指標之一,死亡率通常代表健康水平之最低點,故常被用來當作衡量國民健康的指標。所得高時,表示可支配所得相較於其他族群要來的高,投資較多的金錢在醫療支出上之意願也會更高,以期能換取自身的健康,反之亦然。此外失業率與社會經濟背景狀況兩者之間一直有很密切的關係,經常被拿來當作代表經濟變動的良好指標之一。本研究將氣候因子及總體經濟變數做結合,評估對經濟合作發展組織裡位於中高緯度的22個國家之主要城市每月非意外事故引起的死亡人數之影響,利用縱橫資料模型(Panel Data Model)去估計氣候因子、總體經濟條件與非意外事故引起的死亡率之間關聯性。 本研究發現,在氣候因子方面,平均溫度與非意外引起的死亡率為負向顯著關係;降雨量、溫度變異以及露點溫度與非意外引起的死亡率則為正向顯著關係,且溫度變異對於非意外引起的死亡率增幅程度之影響明顯大於其餘氣候條件。其次,夏季溫度與非意外引起的死亡率兩者呈現正向顯著關係;冬季溫度與非意外引起的死亡率則為負向顯著關係,且冬季要比夏季影響死亡率程度要來的顯著。最後,歐洲夏季溫度相較其他地區夏季溫度,對非意外引起的死亡率增幅程度之影響要來的大。利用實證結果可知,當溫度變化1%,非意外引起的死亡率會增加約0.28 ~ 0.31%,根據IPCC(2001)預測西元2100年平均溫度將增加1.4℃~5.8℃,推估溫度變異程度也將增加4%~17%,本研究計算出心血管疾病受氣候變遷影響而非意外引起的死亡率將上升約1.08% ~ 5.27%。在總體經濟條件方面,可歸納出,當人均實質國民生產毛額增加時,非意外引起的死亡率會下降。當國家失業率攀升時,則非意外引起的死亡率會上升。由實證結果可知氣候因子與總體經濟條件的確與死亡率有顯著關係,建議除了致力於經濟成長的同時,也應在防治策略上,多加重視全球氣候變遷的問題,應以永續發展作為世界環境變遷問題與經濟發展方面的最高指導原則,滿足當代的需要,且同時不損及後代子孫的發展。強調經濟發展與地球乘載能力之間的平衡,同時追求經濟發展、環境保護以及社會發展三者間的永續發展理念。
The major contribution of this study is to combine both the climatic and macroeconomic factors simultaneously on the estimation of mortality using the capital of 22 OECD countries as examples. Empirical results provide strong evidences that higher income and lower unemployment rate could reduce the mortality rates while the increasing of precipitation and temperature variation have significantly positive impacts on mortality rates. The effects of changing average temperature on mortality rates in Summer and Winter are asymmetry and also depends on locations. Combing with the future climate change scenarios with the estimation outcomes show that mortality rates in OECD countries in 2100 will be increased by 3.77% to 5.89%. From empirical results, we come to the conclusion that climate factors and macroeconomic conditions certainty have significant impacts on the mortality rates. Therefore, we suggest that the Government is not only committed to promote economic growth, but also emphases on the issue of global climate change more in the development and control policy. The Government should pursue sustainable development as the guiding principle on world environmental change issues and economic development. That is to say, we have to meet contemporary needs, and at the same time not to compromising future generations to meet their own needs. The main objective is supposed to highlight economic development needs to coordinate the carrying capacity of the earth, and man and nature live in harmony. The pursuit of economic development, environmental protection and social development among the three concepts strike a balance to achieve sustainable development.
其他識別: U0005-3006201015074200
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系



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