Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28633
標題: 台灣農業資源動態需求之經濟分析
AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES IN TAIWAN
作者: 郭迪賢
GUO, DI-XIAN
關鍵字: INTERTEMPORAL-PRODUCTION
跨時生產
QUADRATIC-VALUE-FUNCTION
MULTIVARIATE-FLEXIBLE-ACCELERA
AGRICULTURAL-DYNOMIC-RESOURCE
SCARCE-RESOURCES
TAIWAN
二次價值函數
多變量彈性加速
農業資源動態需求
稀有資源
台灣
出版社: 農業經濟研究所
摘要: 本研究主要目的,在探討跨時生產(intertemponal production ) 過程中,台灣農 業資源動態需求有關的經濟特性。舉凡短期農業資源固定性和其瞬間調整機能的探討 ,跨時生產決策下變動資源的投入需求、準固定資源的投資需求、與產出供給函數的 估計;以及資源價格變動時,對該資源和其他資源需求的長期與短期影響效果等;均 為本研究論述重點所在. 為能有效掌握台灣農業資源動態需求的重要訊息,本文根據農業生產決策者,係在追 求利潤流量現值極大化的最適理性決策行為,選擇資源最適使用水準的調整成本理論 ,設定模型力以實證。基於動態農業生產過程中,變動與準固定資源並存,且不同準 固定投入正負投資俱在的事實,同時考量資源利用間的相互影響關係,本文設定二次 價值函數(quadratic value function)多變量彈性加速(multivariate flexible accelerator) 調整成本模型,進行台灣農業有關的實證研究工作. 在實證研究過程中,本文首先根據統計理論與相關研究,建立台灣農業於民國41年至 76年間的總體投入資源一土地、勞動、資本、中間投入,和產出的指數及其相關價指 數,以為分析之基礎。利用相關次級資料,分析農業資源利用及其需求結構變動情形 及其基本統計特性。再將上述指數資料應用到本文一根據理論設定的二次式價值函數 ,透過動態原理所導出的多變量彈性加速調整成本模型,進行動態變動資源需求、準 固定資源投資需求和產出供給方程體系侍估參數的估計。最後,再利用估計所得的參 數,進行相關生產特性的檢定與價格彈性的推估與分析;同時,探討有關動態資源需 求之經濟特性的政策涵義. 綜合本文研究過程與實證結果,可以得到下列結論: ⑴台灣農業勞動與土地是農業生產過程中的相對稀有資源,工資支出則為農業生產的 主要支出。⑵農業發展過程中,呈現資本和中間投入增加以替代土地和勞動的不足或 滅少之趨勢:⑶台灣農業資源,存在明顯的結構性特徵與變動趨勢:勞動投入的素質 偏低,土地投入品質有惡化的趨勢,中間投入中之飼料份額早已超過原先居首的肥料 ,資本則呈現以機械力替代傳統畜力的趨勢。⑷台灣農業勞動、資本與土地為短期有 資源固定性的準固投入;其每年由實際存量往意願存量水準調整之調整率,以勞動為 最低、資本次之、而以土地最高。⑸有關勞動、資本與土地的投資需求,係呈多變量 的彈性加速型態,而非單變量的彈性加速型態。⑹台灣農業資源需求的價格彈性,長 期與短期除了彈性值大小的差異存在之外,還有方向相反的現象存在。⑺平均而言, 勞動、資本、土地與中間投入之短期需求的價格彈性絕對值均較長期為低;而且在民 國41至76年間呈較長期更有規律可循的變動趨勢。⑻未來農業勞動與土地的需求將價 適度減少,而資本與中間投入則會持續增加. /////// This study attempts to analyze dynamic demand and its related production properties for agricultural labor, land, capital and material in Taiwan under the consideration of intertemporal production. The objectives of this study are as follows: (1) to analyze the structure of agricultural resouce utilization and demand during the past three decades ; (2) to derive dynamic resource demand system and its relevant production properties by using agricultural production value function through dynamic duality theories ; (3) to establish and estimate a completely dynamic model , which includes agricultural variable input demand, quasifixed input investment demand, and output supply funciton ; (4) to draw policy implications for agricultural dynamic resource demand in the light of the empirical results of above analysis ; (5) to foreast the future demands of agricultural labor, land, capital and material in Taiwan. The secondary data consulted in this study mainly come from the Statistics Office, Council of Agriculture, and other official publiccations and relevant studies. This study covers the period from 1952 to 1987. The main findings and implications of this study are as follows: First, agricultural labor and land are scarce resources of agricultural production in Taiwan. Also, capital and material demands are substituting for labor and land demands gradually in the agricultural development process during the period. Second, the relatively low quality of agricutural labor and land has not been improved. Third, the null hypotheses of instantaneous full adjustment of agricultural labor, land and capital demands are strongly rejected, which means these resources are quasi-fixed. Fourth, we cannot accept the null hypotheses of univariate flexible accelerator investment demand for labor, land and capital; that is, the investment model of multivariate flexible accelerator may be more acceptable. Fifth, the own and cross price demand elasticities of long run and short run are significantly different in their directions and values, and the trend change of the latter is smoother than that of the former. Finally, the demands for labor and land will continue to decrease, while those for capital and material will continue to increase in the next decade.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28633
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