Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28915
標題: 原油價格、穀物價格與生質能源價格之關聯性分析
The Price Relationship Between Crude Oil、Crops and Bio-Energy
作者: 羅于雯
Lo, Yu-Wen
關鍵字: 原油價格
crude oil price
穀物價格
生質能源價格
向量誤差修正模型
結構性改變
corn price
ethanol price
VECM
structural change
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 為因應石化燃料短缺所造成能源價格上漲及降低其溫室氣體排放量等因素,各國生質能源產量迅速成長,因此增加能源作物的需求,進而影糧穀物價格,故本文以此為研究動機,利用向量誤差修正模型探討原油價格、玉米價格與生質酒精價格間之關聯性,資料期間為1986年1月至2011年6月,並考慮結構性改變問題,將資料期間分成三個階段。 本研究實證結果發現在玉米和生質酒精價格間關係中,落後一期的玉米價格對生質酒精價格有顯著的正向影響。在原油和生質酒精價格間關係,落後一期的原油價格變動對生質酒精價格有顯著的正向影響。但是在原油和玉米價格間之關係中,本研究未發現落後期的原油價格變動對玉米價格有顯著的影響。另外近期有些研究指出生質酒精的生產將有助於降低能源價格,而本研究實證結果也得到落後期生質酒精價格變動對原油價格有顯著的負向影響,接著透過生質酒精需求函數估得原油價格之替代彈性為3.2146,表示當每人生質酒精消費量增加1加侖,可降低原油價格每加侖0.3111美元。
The rapid growth of bio-energy production has increased derived demand on energy crops and has pushed its prices. Such development on bio-energy has functions to prevent shortage of supply of fossil fuels leads to soaring energy prices and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The main purpose of this study is applying Vector Error Correction Model to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price, corn price and ethanol price during the period January 1986 to June 2011. Structural change issue is also taken into the consideration in this study. The empirical results show that the lagged change of corn price has significant positively affected the ethanol price while the lagged change of crude oil price has significant positively affected the ethanol price too. However the relationships between the crude oil price and corn price are not found. On the other hand, recently studies have pointed out that the production of ethanol will reduce crude oil prices and the empirical result has similarly finding. The empirical results indicate the ethanol substitution elasticity on crude oil price is 3.2146, which mean when the ethanol average consumption increased by 1 gallons can reduce the crude oil price of $ 0.3111 per gallon.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28915
其他識別: U0005-1607201214454000
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-1607201214454000
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