Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28974
標題: 氣候變遷對農業生產影響
Essays on the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Production
作者: 張榮傑
Sinnarong, Nirote
關鍵字: 氣候變遷
Climate change
稻米生產
蝦類生產
乾旱
泰國
亞洲
Rice production
Shrimp production
Drought
Thailand
Asia
出版社: 應用經濟學系所
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摘要: 本篇論文係透過計量追蹤資料模型,研究氣候變遷對於農業生產的潛在影響。首先就泰國的氣候變量在區域性稻米生產上之影響進行估計,結果顯示,溫度和降雨對於稻米之產量有顯著的影響。氣候變遷的模擬顯示,稻米產量受到2030年以至2090年的氣候影響,預計將減少4.56-33.77%。另外,由於氣候變遷的評估,稻米產量的變動則將會增加。第二部分利用擴展隨機生產函數之動差模型,加以檢視乾旱現象對於亞洲的稻米生產所造成的影響。迴歸結果顯示,稻米生產受到乾旱指數的影響。2020年到2060年的乾旱現象預測指出,未來乾旱的發生將減少亞洲的平均稻米產量6.93至13.18%。此外,乾旱在未來對於稻米產量的變化以及稻穀作物生長失敗的機率皆有顯著影響。本文的最後一部分設計了氣候指數型保險,以擔保泰國蝦農面對氣候風險的影響,其中蝦類生產函數的結果顯示,指數型保險可以減少氣候風險對於泰國南部地區蝦子養殖戶的變動收入5.73%。氣候變遷的模擬結果則是發現,蝦農們的避險效率將在2020年到2060年氣候變遷的狀況下增加。本篇論文的主要貢獻在研究未來氣候變遷的潛在風險可以透過重大政策的決定,降低天氣風險對於泰國和亞洲貴重農產品的影響。
The general theme of this dissertation is the study of the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production based on econometric panel data model. The first part estimates the regional rice production on climate variables in Thailand. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation have a significant impact on rice productions. The simulation impacts of climate change reveal that rice production is expected to decrease by 4.56 to 33.77% in response to the future climate scenarios for 2030 to 2090. The rice production variability is expected to increase due to climate change projection. The second part examines the impact of drought phenomenon on rice production by extending a stochastic production function to the moment-based model for rice production in Asia. Regression results show that the rice production have affect from drought index. The projection of future drought phenomenon for 2020s to 2060s reveals that the mean rice production in Asia would decrease by 6.92 to 13.18% in response to the future drought incidence. Besides, the projected change in drought incidence would affect rice production variability and production skewness. The last part of this dissertation designs the weather index insurance to assure shrimp farmers of weather risks in Thailand. Bases on the result of shrimp production function, the index insurance can be reduced the variance of the shrimp farmers’ revenue account for 5.73% in the South region. The simulation results of climate change indicate that shrimp farmers’ hedging efficiency is expected to increase in response to climate change scenario for the 2020 to 2060. The major contribution of this dissertation is potential impact of future climate change, which is very important for policy making decision to mitigate the effect of weather risks on the valuable agricultural product in Thailand and Asia.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/28974
其他識別: U0005-1801201317515000
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