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Essays on the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Production
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The general theme of this dissertation is the study of the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production based on econometric panel data model. The first part estimates the regional rice production on climate variables in Thailand. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation have a significant impact on rice productions. The simulation impacts of climate change reveal that rice production is expected to decrease by 4.56 to 33.77% in response to the future climate scenarios for 2030 to 2090. The rice production variability is expected to increase due to climate change projection. The second part examines the impact of drought phenomenon on rice production by extending a stochastic production function to the moment-based model for rice production in Asia. Regression results show that the rice production have affect from drought index. The projection of future drought phenomenon for 2020s to 2060s reveals that the mean rice production in Asia would decrease by 6.92 to 13.18% in response to the future drought incidence. Besides, the projected change in drought incidence would affect rice production variability and production skewness. The last part of this dissertation designs the weather index insurance to assure shrimp farmers of weather risks in Thailand. Bases on the result of shrimp production function, the index insurance can be reduced the variance of the shrimp farmers’ revenue account for 5.73% in the South region. The simulation results of climate change indicate that shrimp farmers’ hedging efficiency is expected to increase in response to climate change scenario for the 2020 to 2060. The major contribution of this dissertation is potential impact of future climate change, which is very important for policy making decision to mitigate the effect of weather risks on the valuable agricultural product in Thailand and Asia.
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