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標題: Study of Relationship for Watershed Geomorphologic Factors on Occurrence of the Debris flow- Chen Yu Lan Stream as An Example
作者: 陳文福
Wen -Fu Chen
關鍵字: 土石流
Debris flow
Geographic Information Systems
Digital Elevation Modeling
Geomorphologic Characteristic
出版社: 水土保持學系
摘要: According to the experience of Japan, after the heavy Kuan-Tong earthquake happend, the debris flow occurred over 40 years. Therefore, a high occurrence probability of the debris flow may last about several dozen years in future, since the 921 heavy Taiwan earthquake happend in 1999. In this study, we used digital elevation model(DEM) and satellite images as the material to analyze the geomorphologic characteristic, with geographic information system (GIS ) software ArcView and the statistic software SPSS of the Watersheds of Chen-Yu-Lan Stream. The occurrence probability of debris flow is relevant to the geomorphologic characteristic. Therefore, after principal components analysis method was used to analyze and investigate 20 geomorphologic factors, only 12 of them are the primary factors. The principal components of high debris flow potential creek were up to 85.7% with comparing to those creeks which debris flow didn't occur by discrimination analysis. Moreover, high debris flow potential creeks those SWCB have investigated by the model was varified to be high correlative with their geomorphologic characteristic. And it produces a difference function as the reference for determining the debris flows occurrence potential. The result of this research can be refered for preventing debris flow, determining the potential class of debris flows occurrence and making decision of watersheds management.
依據日本之經驗,在關東大地震後,其土石流之發生共持續了40年之久。因此,台灣自1999年發生九二一大地震後,在未來數十年內持續發生土石流之機率將相當高。 本研究以陳有蘭溪集水區為試區,應用地理資訊系統(GIS)之技術,以三維數值高程模型及衛星影像為素材,並以SPSS統計軟體進行分析,探討「集水區的地文特性與土石流發生機率之關係」。由於集水區之地文特性為土石流發生之潛因,故以多變量統計中之主成份分析法將20個地文參數進行分析並萃取其中之12個主要影響因子。 並以試區中之土石流發生高潛勢溪流與未發生之溪流之主成份參數進行區別分析,有效性高達85.7%,且建立一區別函數可供土石流發生潛勢判定之參考。另外,將水保局公佈之潛勢溪流代入函數中加以驗證,得到高度之相關性。本研究之成果將可為土石流防治、發生潛勢判定及為集水區整治優先次序決策之參考。
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