Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/34390
標題: Application of Markov Model on Monitoring Landslide Changes After Chi-Chi Earthquake-the case of Nantou County
應用Markov模式監測921後崩塌變遷之研究—以南投縣為例
作者: Lian, Jung-Chi
連榮吉
關鍵字: Markov模式
Markov model
分類
變遷矩陣
卡方檢定
Classification
Change matrix
Chi-square
出版社: 水土保持學系所
引用: 1.翁慶昌、陳慶欉、賴宏仁 2001 灰色系統基本方法及其應用 高立圖書有限公司 2.鄧國楨 2001 鯉魚潭水庫集水區地景變遷之研究 國立台灣大學森林研究所碩士論文 3.鄧聚龍 1987 灰色系統基本方法 華中理工大學出版社。 4.楊 剛 2004 遙測資訊應用於墾丁國家公園地景生態變遷監測之研究 國立屏東科技大學森林系碩士班 碩士學位論文 5.鄭祈全、吳治達、王素芬 2005 應用Markov和Logit模式監測地景變遷之研究。台灣林業科學 20(1):29-36。 6.林金樹 1996 遙測資訊在生態環境變遷監測上應用之研究-以台南地區為例。國立台灣大學森林學研究所博士論文。252頁。 7.林務局 1995 第三次台灣森林資源及土地利用調查。台灣省林務局。230頁。 8.薛怡珍 2003 應用灰色系統理論預測森林地景類型面積。中華林學季刊36(1):61-71。 9.張家瑞 2001建立台灣地區瀝青路面網級養護管理系統-以公路局中壢工務段為例,國立中央大學土木工程研究所博士論文。41頁。 10.詹賜福、洪良德 1998 傳統預測與灰色預測方法之比較。灰色系統理論與應用研討會。73-76頁。 11.Goodman LA. 1968. The analysis of crossclassified data: independence, quasi- independence, and interactions in contingency tables with or without missing entries. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1031-91. 12.Magurran, A. E. 1988. Ecological Diversity and Its Measurement, London: Croom Helm. 179pp. 13.McGarigal, K. and B. J. Marks. 1995. FRAGSTATS: spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscape structure. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-351. 122pp. 14.Congalton, R. G. 1991. A review of assessing the accuracy of classifications of remotely sensed data. Remote Sensing of Environment 37: 35-46. 15.Tunner MG. 1990. Spatial and Temporal analysis of Landscape pattern. Landscape Ecol 4:21-30. 16.Baker WL. 1989. A review of models of land-scape change. Landscape Ecol (2):111-33.
摘要: A major earthquake (M =7.3) had occurred near the small town Chi-Chi in the Nantou County, Taiwan on September 21, 1999 (17:47 GMT on 20 September). The death toll had exceeded 2400. The bare landslides also exploded several ten thousands in Nantou County. During the Monson and typhoon seasons , there are always some disaster and new landslides, Nantou County is always one of the suffering areas. So in this study, we use three period of SPOT images (1999, 2002, 2005) of Nantou county. Landslide Prediction is a spatio-temporal problem because the landslide at a site depends on the past environment conditions at that location as well as the past conditions of other local sites. This paper focuses on a statistical model - the Markov Model. The purpose is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. The Markov model is applied to predict future landscape changes.The prediction of future landscape changes, using the Markov model, indicated that the slide area would decrease from 1.02% in 2002 and 0.93% in 2005 to 0.82% in 2032 and 0.82% in 2062. As for the spatial distribution using the Logit regression analysis, the results showed that the occurrence of landslide is related to the elevation, slope, cumulative rainfall, soil type, and geologic bed, with particularly high correlations with the slope.
地震或豪雨常引發崩塌, 1999年的9月21日所發生的規模7.3地震震央就在南投縣集集鎮, 當時死亡人數超過2,400人, 在南投縣也爆增了數萬個裸露崩塌區,每年當五到六月的梅雨季節, 與緊接著七、八、九月的颱風季節來臨時,總帶來新的災情與崩塌,而南投縣也總是颱風受影響與降雨最多的地區之一。因此, 本研究利用九月之後三次的高解析衛星影像, 探討921地震震央所在與受災最嚴重的南投縣, 其崩塌地變遷情形。崩塌預測是一個時間空間的問題, 因為任一個崩塌地點與過去該點的環境有關。本文以Markov統計模式,探討南投縣未來之崩塌地變遷情形, 其目的是要將地景的演變過程中, 環境與空間隨機的可能情況, 發展一個健全的方法論。馬可夫模式應用於未來的地景變化, 發現崩塌地的比例由2002年的1.02%,2005年的0.93%,到2032年的0.82%與2062年的0.82%。而由Logit的模式分析, 發現崩塌與累積雨量、高度、坡度、地質、土壤等因子均息息相關,尤其是坡度,值得後續深入研究。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/34390
其他識別: U0005-1907200614060900
Appears in Collections:水土保持學系

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