Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/35006
標題: 莫拉克颱風後曾文水庫上游集水區崩塌地地文特性分析之研究
A Study on Landslide Geomorphologic Characteiatic Analysis at Upstream Watershed of Tseng-Wen Reservoir After Typhoon Morakot
作者: 李東恩
Lee, Dong-En
關鍵字: 曾文水庫集水區
Watershed of Tseng-Wen Reservoir
數值高程模型
羅吉斯迴歸
山崩潛勢因子
山崩潛感圖
Digital Elevation Model
Logistic Regression Method
logistic Regression
Various factors of landslide hazards
landslide susceptibility zonation
出版社: 水土保持學系所
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摘要: 臺灣地區地勢陡峻、地質脆弱、地震與颱風頻仍,尤其1999年台灣發生九二一大地震後,造成大量土砂結構鬆散,近年來更在溫室效應造成氣候異常化的情況下,高強度之降雨頻率增加,極易形成大規模土砂移動,如崩塌與土石流等,常造成下游河道淤積甚至威脅保全對象之安全或屋毀人亡。 本研究以曾文水庫上游集水區為研究區域,利用2008與2011年之SPOT衛星影像進行崩塌地判釋以及NDVI值計算,並以數值高程模型(DEM)萃取出地文因子,以GIS軟體進行套疊分析及空間分析。本研究選定八項潛勢因子:高程、坡度、坡向、水系距、道路距、地形起伏度、地表粗糙度、NDVI等,使用羅吉斯迴歸分析找出該區域山崩潛感之迴歸公式,再依其權重繪製山崩潛感圖,探討本研究區於2009年莫拉克颱風發生後之崩塌地地文特性,以供未來在本區規劃設計防災工程時參考之依據。 研究成果顯示,本區域之崩塌面積由2008年約221萬m2,到2011年時已增加至約515 萬m2。經以ArcGIS軟體進行套疊分析後發現,本研究區鄰近水系區域之崩塌面積由2008年至2011年增加了2.3倍之多。再以羅吉斯迴歸分析出之迴歸公式繪製山崩潛感圖後,可觀察到本研究區之崩塌中高潛感區域多為鄰近水系、裸露地及地形變動較大之區域。其中水系距離、地形起伏度、地表粗糙度及NDVI等四項因子對本研究區之崩塌影響較大。 本研究利用羅吉斯迴歸所建立的崩塌潛感圖,可比較不同崩塌影響因子其分級的差異顯著性,並能有效量化各因子之權重,進而求得崩塌地之潛感值。如能利用解析度更佳的DEM資料將能提供未來更精確的預測工作。如遇有其他外力干擾(如地震與颱風等),改變原有邊坡之穩定性,則必須立即重新進行評估監測,以提供正確之評估資訊,減少崩塌災害的發生。
Owing to steep topography and complex geological environment, geologic disasters occur frequently in Taiwan, especially during typhoon seasons. Practically, the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (MW=7.6) resulted in a large number of landslides at the Upstream Watershed. In recent years, climate change due to global warming will result in the increases of the frequencies and intensities of storm events; the mass wasting by rainfall also induced debris flow, new and further extensions of landslides, riverbank erosion, and massive sediment deposit in the reservoir watershed. The study area locates on upstream watershed of Tsengwen Reservoir. The study focuses on the landslides induced by the major Typhoon Morakot occurring in 2009.This study used GIS as a tool to map storm-induced landslides from SPOT5 images. Digital elevation model (DEM) was used to extract geomorphic landslide causative factors. SPOT image taken was also used to calculate an environmental factor - NDVI (normalized differential vegetation index). This study analyzes factors including elevation, slope, aspect, distance to rivers, distance to roads, relief, roughness and NDVI. The method of this study is using the Logistic Regression Method to calculate the weight of potential instability factors for landslide and combine GIS technique to build the potential landslide map at Upstream Watershed of Tsengwen Reservoir after Typhoon Morakot. Validation result shows that this model could be used for the prediction of future landslides. The result shows that the landslide area is estimated as 2.21×106 m2 and 5.15 ×106 m2 in 2008 and 2011. In addition, when compared with landslide area, about 3 times more new landslides generated near by distance to rivers. These causative factors were used to build a landslide susceptibility map via logistic regression. In landslide susceptibility map, we found the moderately-high susceptibility index close to the area near by distance to rivers, exposed area, and terrain change tremendously area. Distance to rivers, relief, roughness and NDVI are main factors controlling the landslide potential. For this research, using Logistic regression method can compare differ landslide potential factor and quantified the weight of each factor effectively, and estimating the potential value between factors with landslide. A DEM with better resolution is believed more proper for landslide susceptibility map in the future work. And still need many improvements so as to match the real slope situation after earthquake and typhoon. In the future, we have to continue conserving and managing slopeland, monitoring and counteracting slopeland related disasters to achieve the objectives of soil and water conservation and disaster mitigation.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/35006
其他識別: U0005-1706201216590000
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-1706201216590000
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