Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/35009
標題: 整合德爾菲法與層級分析法繪製崩塌潛感圖之探討
The Research of Landslide Susceptibility Mapping by Integration of the Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process
作者: 黃政鴻
Huang, Cheng-Hung
關鍵字: Modified Delphi Method
修正式德爾菲法
Analytic Hierarchy Process
Landslide susceptibility map
GIS
層級分析法
崩塌潛感圖
地理資訊系統
出版社: 水土保持學系所
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摘要: 台灣地區因位處地形陡峭,地質年輕,地震頻仍地質甚為脆弱。加上因位處季風氣候區,且位於颱風路徑上,常有颱風挾帶豪大降雨,輒生山崩、地滑、土石流等現象,然而在地狹人稠條件下,常發生嚴重山坡地災害。自從1999年發生九二一大地震之後,台灣山坡地之結構益顯鬆散脆弱,近年來更因極端降雨關使得台灣山坡地之災害屢見不鮮。台灣山坡地災害以落石、地層滑動、山崩、土石流以及潛移等類型居多。每遇地震、豪雨都會使保全對象區域之人民生命與財產安全受到威脅。而坡面的安定性主要決定於其地質材料與地形條件,而導致邊坡崩塌的誘發因子多為降雨量與人為超限利用等。 本研究旨在探討區域性的山崩塌潛感之分析,並以陳有蘭溪的豐丘地區為研究試區。為了研究豐丘的崩塌潛感,彙整了相關文獻並整合了修正式德爾菲法與層級分析法並以之為研究方法。將崩塌的影響因子分成潛勢因子、地形因子、誘發因子與區位因子,等四大項因子並做成修正式德爾菲法之問卷設計,並建立崩塌潛感特性之綜合評估準則表。以專家問卷的方式求出崩塌潛感的綜合性評估指數,並進一步使用層級分析法進行分析計算出崩塌影響因子的權重值做為評估依據。最後結合航空影像所製作的數值高程模型(DEM),利用地理資訊系統軟體(Arc GIS)將層級分析法所做出的權重值套疊至豐丘地區的圖層資料,並可繪製出豐丘地區的區域性崩塌潛感圖。 本研究所繪製之崩塌潛感圖依照危險之程度的潛感分成了低潛感、中潛感、中高潛感及高潛感四個地區。潛感分區可作為評定豐丘地區的現況安定程度,可供日後規劃設計治理時之參考。
In Taiwan, the landform is highly; precipitously and belong young geological that is why the geological fragile. Then belongs to the monsoon climate zone, resulting in steep terrain, fragile geology, typhoons often along with a heavy rainfall, leading to the phenomenon of often landslides, land slide, debris flow. Densely populated condition cause to Serious hillside disasters. After the 921 earthquake Taiwan hillside showing loose and fragile. There are a lot of hillside disasters which are caused by extreme storm in recent years in Taiwan. The majority of the hillside disasters in Taiwan are falling rocks, strata slip, mudflows, landslides and creep. The extreme storm and earthquakes endanger the life and property of the people who are protected by the government. The stability of hillsides depends on geomaterials and terrain condition. And the induction factors of collapse and landslide are rainfall and over capacity use of slope land and so on. This study are mainly research on Analysis of the regional mountain landslide susceptibility. The study area was located Chen Yu Lan River of Fong-Ciou region. For landslide susceptibility in Fong-Ciou region Compile the relevant literature and integration of the Modified Delphi method and Analytical Hierarchy Process as a research method. The impact factor of the landslide include potential factor, topography factor, induced factor, location factor, fourth factor and made to repair the design of the questionnaire of the Modified Delphi Method. Further to establish Characteristics of landslide susceptibility assessment criteria table Expert questionnaire seeking to take out a comprehensive assessment of landslide susceptibility index. And further use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze calculate the landslide impact factor weight values as basis for the assessment. Combination of aerial images produced by digital elevation model (DEM) use GIS Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to make the weight value the overlay Fong-Ciou region layer information. Export data in Fong-Ciou region landslide susceptibility map. Landslide susceptibility map drawn out by the Institute in accordance with the dangerous landslide susceptibility, Divided into low susceptibility, susceptibility region of high susceptibility, high susceptibility region. This area of partition as a measure of the current status of the stability and extent of the Fong-Ciou region. And to estimate the present stability of hillsides as ways for references in the future.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/35009
其他識別: U0005-1706201218084400
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-1706201218084400
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