請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/45392
標題: Regional Economic Impacts of a Verdugo Scenario Earthquake Disruption of Los Angeles Water Supplies: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
作者: Rose, Adam
Liao, Shu-Yi
Bonneau, Amanda
關鍵字: earthquake engineering
economics
Monte Carlo methods
water supply
resilience
business
service
摘要: This paper advances the state of the art in the development and application of a computable general equilibrium model to estimate the business interruption impacts of a Verdugo scenario earthquake on the water system serving Los Angeles. The model has been especially designed to incorporate engineering and spatial aspects of this system in the context of the regional economy to include resilience responses at various water outage levels. The Verdugo earthquake scenario and Monte Carlo simulations show that water outages in LA County could result in business interruption losses of several billion dollars without any resilience adjustment. However, a reduction of these losses by more than 90% is possible through the application of several types of resilience on the customer side, most prominently rescheduling production, in addition to conservation, input substitution, and storage of water. Allowing the price of water to rise to reflect its scarcity would reduce the losses even further. [DOI: 10.1193/1.3610245]
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/45392
ISSN: 8755-2930
顯示於類別:應用經濟學系

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