Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/45576
標題: Forecasting h(m)otel guest nights in New Zealand
作者: Lim, C.
張嘉玲
Chang, C.L.
McAleer, M.
關鍵字: Lodging industry
Guest night demand forecasting
Time series models
Monthly data
Holt-Winters
Box-Jenkins
time-series
tourism demand
unit-root
art
期刊/報告no:: International Journal of Hospitality Management, Volume 28, Issue 2, Page(s) 228-235.
摘要: The purpose of this paper is to highlight some time series models which hotel and motel industry practitioners could use to forecast guest nights. Given their considerable practicality, the lodging industry can easily benefit from using these models as forecasts can be obtained at low cost for effective management and planning. Monthly observations are used for estimating the model from 1997(1) to 2006(12). The Holt-Winters and Box-Jenkins ARMA models are able to forecast guest night demand accurately as 99% of the variations in the guest night forecast are associated with variations in actual guest nights in 2007. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/45576
ISSN: 0278-4319
文章連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2008.08.001
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

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