Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/49767
標題: 具一般修理分配的備用系統之貝氏分析
Bayesian Approach for a Standby System with General Repair Distribution
作者: 許英麟
關鍵字: 數學類
應用研究
Availability
效益
貝氏分析
分布不拘的
不完全復元
模擬
備用的
Bayesian approach
Distribution-free
Imperfect coverage
Simulation
Standby
摘要: 大部份的備用系統假設修理時間服從指數分配、兩層的Erlangian分配或者對數常態分配,然而修理時間假設一般性的分配是合理的,因此本計劃使用貝氏分析的方法來探討在備用系統具一般修理分配下的系統特徵。我們用兩年時間來探討此問題,希望可以得到一些有用的結果。第一年,我們將探討包含一個可用元件以及一個暖備備用元件之可修理系統,假設從暖備備用元件轉到可用元件的轉換失敗的機率為p。壞掉的時間與修理時間分別假設為指數分配與一般分配。第二年,我們探討在第一年所使用的系統會因為重新啟動產生的延遲時間,此時間假設為指數分配。除此之外,我們亦探討包含一個可用元件、一個暖備備用元件以及一個不可靠的修理站,我們假設此修理站會故障,其故障時間服從指數分配。最後我們給予貝氏分析的模擬結果。
Most standby systems assume the time-to-repair follows an exponential distribution, a two-stage Erlangian distribution or a lognormal distribution. However, the assumption that the repair time distribution follows a general distribution is realistic. Thus we use the Bayesian analysis to consider the system characteristics on the standby system with general distribution. This proposal is to last for two years and it is hoped that through the project some useful results can be obtained. In the first year, we consider a redundant repairable system which consists of one active component and one warm standby. It is assumed that the switch device has a failure probability, p, during the switch from standby component to the active component. The time-to-failure and the time-to-repair of components are assumed to follow an exponential and a general distribution, respectively. In the second year, reboot delay takes place for the standby system considered in the first year which is exponentially distributed. We also consider another a redundant repairable system which consists of two active components, a warm standby component and one unreliable repair-faculty. We assume that the repair-faculty can break down at any time with an exponential distribution. Finally, all simulation results are displayed on the Bayesian approach.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/49767
其他識別: NSC99-2118-M005-004
文章連結: http://grbsearch.stpi.narl.org.tw/GRB/result.jsp?id=2123721&plan_no=NSC99-2118-M005-004&plan_year=99&projkey=PA9907-2440&target=plan&highStr=*&check=0&pnchDesc=%E5%85%B7%E4%B8%80%E8%88%AC%E4%BF%AE%E7%90%86%E5%88%86%E9%85%8D%E7%9A%84%E5%82%99%E7%94%A8%E7%B3%BB%E7%B5%B1%E4%B9%8B%E8%B2%9D%E6%B0%8F%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90
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