請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/5094
標題: 以光化學網格模式評估不同季節臭氧事件日之排放源與風場輸入資料差異
Photochemical modeling and evaluating the performance of feature emissions and wind field inputs
作者: 陳聖博
Chen, Sheng-Po
關鍵字: ozone episode
臭氧事件日
sensitivity analysis
grid model evaluation
敏感度分析
網格模式評估
出版社: 環境工程學系所
引用: 1.Gilbert M. 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摘要: 本研究利用光化學網格模式模擬在不同季節之中部地區臭氧事件日,並評估排放源(VOC和NOx)與氣象因子(風速)對於光化指標污染物臭氧模擬結果之準確性。光化學網格模式需要有排放源和氣象場之前處理資料作為空品模式模擬之依據,排放源和氣象場前處理資料之不準確性會對光化學網格模式的模擬造成相對地誤差,因此有效地探討排放源和氣象場之前處理資料可以改善其模擬結果。 台灣空氣品質模式(Taiwan Air Quality Model)為光化學網格模式之ㄧ,在台灣地區進行之事件日光化學網格模式模擬已行之有年;研究中所選取之事件日為中部地區事件日,模擬範圍為台灣中部空品地區之高臭氧事件日,模擬時間主要為2005年春季(四月初)和秋季(九月中旬),模式模擬時間為期5天(120小時)。 研究結果之定性分析顯示了臭氧之傳輸趨勢,在春季事件日模擬,隨著盛行風向和海陸風之影響,污染物會隨著風場帶向北邊地區(桃竹苗等地區);秋季則與春季方向相反,以北風為主的盛行風會將汙染物由北邊往南邊地區(雲嘉南等地區)帶入,由此可見中部地區污染物會有境外移入或移出之可能性。 在進行敏感度分析時,所選用之係數調整值可以直接使用模擬值和實測值之時間序列結果,將整體之模擬值和實測值的比値當作調整係數,此一調整可以使得模擬結果符合實測值。此外,就不同季節事件日之調整係數差異,可以看出不同季節(事件日)之前處理資料應該有不同季節上之差異特性,才可以比較符合模擬事件日當時之實際情形。 一般在進行空品模式模擬結果之定量分析時,使用之方法為環保署所公告之統計方法;將模擬結果用其他不同之統計方法分析後,可以發現環保署所公告之評估方法為較嚴謹之定量評估方式,惟應捨去剔除值之使用,使不論是實測低值或是實測高值,皆可以從該統計結果進行分析。
In this study, a photochemical model (Taiwan Air Quality Model, TAQM) were used to simulate the ozone episodes in central Taiwan and evaluate the performance of regional-scale photochemical modeling results in different kinds of feature emissions, like NOx and VOC, and meteorological parameter, like wind inputs. When doing the photochemical model simulation, we need two input data, emissions and meteorological modeling results, which is obtained by TEDS-5.1 (2002) and the Fifth-Generation NCAR / Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) simulation. When the two photochemical model inputs have some kind of inaccuracy, it would effect the photochemical simulation and cause error. In this research we would find the inaccuracy of input data by using sensitivity analyses of emissions and meteorological inputs. A three-dimension photochemical grid model was employed to analyze two ozone episodes in spring and autumn (2005), each covering about five consecutive days (or 120h) in the Central Taiwan. The influence of the feature emissions and wind field inputs on model performance was assessed. The model simulation showed the pollution transportation together with the wind field and geography profile. The sensitivity analyses were based on the observation data of ten observation sites. Results showed that the inaccuracy of pollution simulation may primarily be caused by the higher estimate of the emissions which is made of TEDS-5.1. Comparing the simulated wind field of MM5, we found that the average u wind field and v wind field were similar with that of the observation sites, but that the wind directions had some kind of inaccuracy. Besides, use different kind of evaluations may more or less influence the error and bias between the simulation and observation. Further study will be focus on the improvement of the emission data and the accuracy of the meteorological field. Only with the better precisely input data would make the correct photochemical model simulation results.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/5094
其他識別: U0005-0107200621261600
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-0107200621261600
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