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標題: 地震引起之電力中斷對台灣可能造成之一般均衡經濟衝擊
Modeling General Equilibrium Economic Impacts of Earthquake Induced Electricity Disruptions in Taiwan
作者: 廖述誼
關鍵字: 經濟學
摘要: 台灣位於環太平洋的地震帶上,受到菲律賓板塊與歐亞大陸板塊擠壓運動的影響,每年有感地震平均達531次,屬世界上有感地震最頻繁的地區之一。由於地震強度及發生機率相當難以預測,故對台灣的電力系統造成極大的威脅,以921集集地震為例,因地震引發的電力系統中斷情形相當嚴重,尤其是345仟伏之中寮-龍潭線#203號鐵塔因強震倒塌,立即造成雲林縣以北地區之大規模停電(全黑),同時由於因地震受損需重建之鐵塔及塔基相當多,造成雲林縣以北地區之限電供應時期長達20天左右,整體經濟損失高達140億美元。由上述可知,地震對電力系統供電能力所造成之瞬時性影響(第一階段)與震後過渡性影響(第二階段),皆可能對社會經濟造成顯著之負面衝擊,因此事前之電力系統震害境況模擬及經濟影響評估,將有助於研擬未來電力設施耐震補強策略,以減輕電力系統震害對社會經濟之影響。由於過去國內外相關研究多著重在電力系統震害境況模擬及第一階段電力供應全黑所造成之直接經濟損失估計,缺乏評估第二階段限電供應時期所造成之一般均衡(直接加間接)經濟損失,因此本研究計畫之主要目的為建立一個結合電力系統震害境況模擬、區域社會經濟地理資訊系統、可計算一般均衡經濟模型之整合性評估模型,來評估大規模地震發生時,受災地區預期發生之第一階段及第二階段電力供應中斷電情形,以有效評估因地震引起之電力中斷對區域及整體經濟可能造成之經濟衝擊,研究結果將有助於政府相關單位及台電公司評估進行高地震風險區域供變電壓系統耐震補強之可能效益,以及提供制訂未來台灣整體電力設施耐震補強策略之參考依據
Every year Taiwan is exposed to a large number of earthquakes and many geographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the island make the power system of Taiwan very vulnerable to the impacts of earthquakes. The highly unpredictable and complicated nature of each earthquake, its damages and impacts presents enormous challenges for economic modeling of earthquake induced electricity disruptions. At the very moment of the shock (Phase 1), regional total blackout happens due to the disconnectivity of transmission and distribution systems and the temporally shut down of power generators. After the shock (Phase 2), the reduction in power supply (RPS) gradually decreases as the power system started being restored. In Phase 2, the RPS depends on how badly the system is damaged as well as how repair work proceeds. In the aftermath of the Chi-Chi earthquake, it took about 20 days for the fully recovery of electricity supply. Because the direct and indirect economic impacts during Phase 2 could be much higher than that during Phase 1, it is important to evaluate the performance of a damaged power system in terms of its electricity supply discontinuity in both Phase 1 and Phase 2In order to better understand the Phase-1 and Phase-2 impacts of earthquake induced electricity disruptions on Taiwan's economy, the purpose of this study is to incorporate a simulation module for the seismic response analysis for Taiwan electric power system, a spatial differential socioeconomic geographic information system, individual and market resilient enhancement measures, demand surge, and intertemporal economic interactions in the aftermath of a earthquake disaster into a computable general equilibrium model. The results will provide more detailed information about the vulnerability of the economy to earthquake induced electricity disruptions. In addition, the results can be utilized to make policy decisions of future cost-effective retrofit and countermeasure investments in the power system.
其他識別: NSC100-2410-H005-019
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系



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