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標題: 地球外自然資源經濟價值之估計--以土衛六潛在之甲烷能源為標的
Estimating the Economic Values of Natural Resources beyond the Earth the Methane Energy of Titan as the Subject
作者: 曾偉君
關鍵字: 經濟學
Future energy
Natural resources
Sustainable existence of mankind
Space exploration
Willingness to pay
摘要: 背景: 土星的衛星土衛六(Titan),很可能擁有以甲烷為主,不小於整個地球總化石燃料蘊藏量之能源, 且以甲烷河流及甲烷湖泊的形態位於地表, 開採容易. 目前及可見的未來數十年, 土衛六的甲烷可能有很高的作為中繼站能源的價值. 例如探測器及太空船之再補充燃料用, 以及長期基地之能源. 在較久的未來可能成為太空採礦的標的. 而人類若能在長期基地繁殖, 並擁有返回重建地球能力, 則可以減少伽瑪射線爆發(Gamma Ray Burst; GRB)及核戰等地球人類物種完全毀滅的風險. 目的: 因此本文目的即在估計: 在不同科技發展程度下, 土衛六的甲烷作為中繼站能源的價值. 方法: 方法為藉由經濟學之跨代模型(overlap generation model; OLG)及代表性個人, 和跨時風險趨避程度, 結合人口, 天文學, 以及太空生物學等之數據, 考量資源稀少性, 以及替代能源,計算土衛六甲烷的影子願付價值. 重要性: 相較於大航海探險時代, 現在是太空探索的黃金時代. 相關的各種科學技術早晚會可行, 而另外兩大問題則為道德與經濟財務問題.太空探索的經濟研究中, Zubrin (1995) 及Palaia IV et al. (2009), 皆以火星為分析對象.Sylvan et al. (2009) 則估計未來數十年裡太空相關經濟活動之價值. 本計劃之研究標的,方法, 及焦點皆不同. 在學術主題, 人類永續, 及外星資源探勘上, 可望有所貢獻。
Background : Titan, moon of Saturn, is likely to have a reserve of methane that is no lessthan the total fossil energy reserves on Earth. As a form of methane river or methane lake onthe surface of Titan, makes the mining of methane extremely easy. Currently and withindecades, the methane on Titan could have high values as the energy of potential midway base.For example, it can be the used to refuel the detector and spaceship, and be the energy of thelong-term base. In a longer future, it could become the target of space mining. Meanwhile, ifthe mankind can breed on the long-term base, and be capable to return and to rebuild earth,then the extinction risk of human species on earth caused by Gamma Ray Burst (GRB) ornuclear war, etc. can be reduced. Purpose: So the purpose of this study is to estimate thevalues of methane on Titan as the energy of midway base, under different stages of scientificand technological development. Method : The method is to combine the overlap generationmodel (OLG), representative individual, and risk aversion across-time, to calculate theshadow willingness to pay of methane on Titan. Various data including population, astronomy,and astrobiology figures, etc., as well as the scarcity of resources, and substitute energies willbe considered. Importance: Comparing to the Great Navigation Era, it is the golden Era ofSpace Exploration now. Various kinds of relevant science and technology will be feasiblesooner or later. Two other big problems are moral issues and financial/economy issues. Thereare few economic researches of space exploration. Both Zubrin (1995) and Palaia IV et al.(2009) focuses on Mars as the analytic target, while Sylvan et al. (2009) estimate the value ofspace economic activities of the incoming decades. On the other hand, current study hasdifferent focus and method. Thus it is expected to contribute in academic subject, sustainableexistence of the mankind, and exploration of extraterrestrial resources.
其他識別: NSC100-2410-H005-018
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系



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