請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/5627
標題: 氣懸膠模式改進暨1996-2002年台灣空氣品質策略回顧評析
Revision of an aerosol model and retrospective assessment of air quality management practices in Taiwan from 1996 to 2002
作者: 郭珮萱
Kuo, Pei-Hsuan
關鍵字: trajectory
軌跡
air quality model
Gaussian plume model
emission controls
空品模式
高斯煙流
排放量控制
出版社: 環境工程學系所
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摘要: 自1995年起,台灣環保署實施「空氣污染防制費」的徵收後,各大型固定污染源開始進行排放量減量的動作,同時,各項污染防制策略陸續的實施(包括:明訂及逐步加嚴各污染源排放標準、改善燃料油及交通工具用油之油品…等等),也促進了污染源排放量的減少及污染物濃度的改善。為使用空品模式來了解主要空氣品質管制策略之施行成效,本研究先改善高斯軌跡煙流擴散模式(GTx)在地形處理及氣膠生成機制上不足之處,以提高模式之模擬能力,其後選用1996至2002年此六年做為研究期,分析台灣地區空氣品質之變化,及進而分析空氣品質改善主要有效策略。 在模式軌跡計算程序上,本研究利用不同地形處理方式所模擬煙流之軌跡線,找出最適用在複雜地形之處理方式,並使用經基因演算法(GA)所得之最佳化參數進行軌跡線之模擬。模擬結果顯示,「Opt」方案(使用最佳化參數、稜線測站及探空實驗資料,及考慮山脈對水平及垂直風速的影響)可提高模擬之相關係數,但在內陸高濃度的污染事件日時,模式仍有低估現象,還需更進一步努力。 在模式污染物計算程序上,本研究考量CALPUFF之氣膠生成速率機制,以取代原本固定的硫酸鹽及硝酸鹽氣膠的生成速率。此項結果顯示,選用考量CALPUFF機制的結果有助於改善對硫酸鹽及硝酸鹽的模擬,其二氧化硫轉換為硫酸鹽的轉換速率為0.9 – 1.8 S % h-1,氮氧化物轉換為硝酸鹽的轉換速率為 2.0 - 13.0 N % h-1,此速率與其他研究結果相似。 對空氣污染物(二氧化硫[SO2]、氮氧化物[NOx]及粒狀物[PM])濃度之改善成效,將研究期分為兩個階段(P1年:1996年至1998年,及P2年:2000年至2002年),分析其排放量、氣象及污染物濃度之差異,並選擇中部地區14個環保署監測站為代表受體點進行空氣品質模式模擬。研究結果顯示,徵收空污費、加嚴排放標準及改善燃料油、汽油及柴油之含硫量等策略明顯降低SO2濃度;加嚴固定源及汽油車的排放標準明顯改善NOx濃度;當地境內固定源原生性PM排放減量,但其下降量亦受逸散源的管制成效影響。此外,衍生性污染物如硫酸鹽及硝酸鹽之濃度減量,受其上風處100至150公里處之大型污染源排放減量影響顯著。
In 1995, Taiwan's Environmental Protection Administration (EPA/TW) instituted a policy of levying emission taxes on polluters in order to combat the rampant national issue of pollution. Since that time, pollution control strategies, tightening exhaust emission standards for industry, improvements in fuel quality, and new stricter vehicle emission standards etc., have been implemented. For examining the effectiveness of these control strategies using an air quality model, this study revises Gaussian trajectory transfer-coefficient modeling system (GTx) on terrain treatments and aerosol formations, to improve the ability of the model. Then, the years from 1996 to 2002 are selected as studying periods to examine the variation of Taiwan's air quality and evaluate the effectiveness of these pollution control strategies using the revised model. The different terrain treatments are considered in the trajectory procedure in the model to determine the optimal mechanism in complex terrains. In addition, optimized parameters in the trajectory procedure determined from Genetic Algorithm (GA) were used for modeling scenarios. The result shows that the trajectories predicted from “Opt” scenarios (using optimized parameters, ridge and the tethered-sonde meteorological data, and considering the impact of mountains on horizontal and vertical wind velocity) improved the air quality simulation with better correlations. However, more efforts are needed to solve the underestimation in mountain areas, especially in high-polluted episode days. The formation rates of sulfate and nitrate aerosols in the pollutant procedure in the model are modified from constant values to be varied according to a function of solar radiation, relative humidity, ozone concentration, and NOx concentration. The result shows that new mechanisms, based on mechanisms used in CALPUFF, improved the performance of the model. The simulation from new mechanisms results in better correlation coefficients and lower biases. The calculated conversion rates are 0.9 - 1.8 S % h-1 for SO2 to sulfate aerosols; 2.0 - 13.0 N % h-1 for NOx to nitrate aerosols. These rates are closer to other researches. Finally, a detailed analysis of change in the concentrations of pollutants (SO2, NOx and particulate matter [PM]) between two three-year periods (from 1996 to1998 (P1) and from 2000 to 2002 (P2)) was conducted. The pollution levels were generally lower in the latter period. Concentrations at 14 EPA/TW stations in central Taiwan were simulated and source apportionment analyses in three of Central Taiwan''s largest cities were conducted using a trajectory transfer-coefficient air quality model. The sulfur control policy greatly reduced SO2 concentration island-wide, a stringent emission standard put into place for gasoline vehicles reduced NOx concentration along highways, and an emissions tax placed on construction sites, as well as a regular program for road-dust sweeping, reduced primary particulate matter. Among all of the pollution abatement policies implemented, the most effective method for reducing PM2.5 concentrations in the three largest cities involved the reduction of fine ammonium sulfate aerosols from point sources (56%-63% of net PM2.5 reduction). The next largest reduction was attributed to a dimishment in primary PM2.5 emanating from point sources (27%-56% of net PM2.5 reduction). Secondary particulate matter, especially sulfate, was reduced from distances up to 150 km leeward of major pollution point sources such as Taichung Power Plant.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/5627
其他識別: U0005-0902201009503700
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-0902201009503700
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