請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/5689
標題: 以時間序列迴模式分析中部空品區空氣污染物與心肺疾病之關聯性
Analysis of the correlation of air pollution and cardiopulmonary diseases in central Taiwan air quality area using time series regression model
作者: 陳雅淳
Chen, Ya-Chun
關鍵字: Cardiopulmonary diseases
氣喘疾病
asthma
time series regression
relative risk
時間序列迴歸模式
相對風險值
出版社: 環境工程學系所
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摘要: 台灣地區工業快速發展導致空氣品質日益惡化,空氣污染不但直接影響環境、民眾生活品質,甚至會對人體健康產生相當大的危害。本研究將以中部空氣品質區為例,探討空氣品質對於此區域民眾罹患心肺疾病日門診量與日住院量的相關性分析;以及深入討論多污染物相互作用對於每日門診量之影響,進一步分析歷年含硫量管制標準修訂對於疾病的罹病率是否產生影響。 使用資料包括環保署於中部地區的空氣品質監測資料(包括:NO2、SO2、PM10、O3、CO及溫度)、台中氣象站提供氣象資料(包括:溼度)及國家衛生研究院的健保統計資料(包括:循環系統疾病與呼吸系統疾病),利用時間序列迴歸模式挑選最佳的時間與環境氣候干擾因子,然後再以適合度指標挑選溫度、溼度及空氣污染物的最佳延遲與累積效應,再次併入時間序列迴歸模式,最後,利用此模式探討空氣污染物對於心肺疾病的相對風險值。 本研究結果顯示,在延遲與累積效應方面,NO2、PM10及CO2對全年齡層與老年族群的循環系統疾病當日門診量具有最顯著之相關性,而日住院量則具延遲效應。在呼吸系統疾病日門診量方面,以PM10對各年齡層當日門診量之相關性最高,而日住院量方面,亦皆具有延遲與累積效應。在單污染物模式中,循環系統疾病與呼吸系統疾病日門診量部份,除了氣喘疾病以孩童族群為高危險群之外,其餘相關疾病則以老年族群為高危險群。日住院量部分,除了心臟血管疾病以孩童族群為高危險群之外,其於相關疾病則亦以老年族群為高危險群。在多污染物模式中,循環系統疾病日門診量與NO2、SO2及CO之相對危險值呈正相關,而日住院量中,僅PM10與缺血性心臟病呈正相關性;對於呼吸系統疾病的日門診量而言,以NO2與SO2影響較大,於日住院量發現,以PM10、NO2及CO具相關性。
The purpose of this study is to assess the correlations between concentration of air pollutants and daily hospital admissions of cardiopulmonary diseases in central Taiwan air quality area. Time series of health outcome and environmental data were obtained for the period 1997-2006. Information from air pollution and meteorology were obtained from air monitoring stations administrated by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency. Five pollutants including NO2, SO2, O3, PM10 and CO were investigated. Air temperature and relative humidity obtained from meteorology data were also included as evaluating parameters. The data regarding cardiopulmonary diseases hospital admissions and hospitalizations were obtained from the National Health Research Institute (NHRI), including disease of the circulatory and respiratory systems. Data were analyzed using regression model to assess the relationships between the air pollutants and hospital admissions and hospitalizations after controlling for time trend, weather, lag effect and accumulate effect of air pollutants. The results show that there were lag and cumulative effects of air pollution to daily hospital admissions and hospitalizations for cardiopulmonary diseases. The correlation between outpatients of respiratory system and PM10 is significant. For outpatients of respiratory and cardiopulmonary diseases, the results of the single pollutant models indicate that old crowd is the highly dangerous group for all related diseases except asthma whose highly dangerous group is child crowd. For inpatients, old crowd is also the highly dangerous group for all related diseases except cardiovascular disease whose highly dangerous group is child crowd. As for the multi-pollutant models, it is found that the outpatients of circulatory system and the relative risks of NO2, SO2 and CO are positively related. However, only PM10 is related with the inpatients of ischemic heart disease. For respiratory system, NO2 and SO2 have greater impacts on outpatients, and NO2, PM10 and CO are related with inpatients.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/5689
其他識別: U0005-1708200915214200
文章連結: http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0005-1708200915214200
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