Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/65975
標題: 遊客滿意度、重遊意願、旅遊頻度結構分析及替代模型比較驗證研究 -以惠蓀林場森林遊樂區為例
The SEM Analysis and Alternative Models for Visitor's Satisfaction, Intention to Revisit and Visiting Frequency - A Case Study in the Hui-Sun Forest Recreation Area
作者: 曾建薰
Tzeng, Chien-Shiun
關鍵字: 森林遊樂區
forest recreation area
滿意度
重遊意願
願意支付
驗證性因素分析
結構方程模型
邏輯迴歸
satisfaction
intentions to revisit
willingness to pay
confirmatory factor analysis
structural equation modeling
logistic regression
出版社: 森林學系所
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摘要: 本研究透過遊客問卷方式,調查惠蓀林場國家森林遊樂區遊客滿意度及其重遊意願之態度資料,藉由邏輯迴歸分析及結構方程模型方法,闡明遊客滿意度、重遊意願、旅遊頻度及遊客願意支付之結構關係模型。邏輯迴歸分析結果顯示滿意度影響遊客重遊意願,若以不滿意遊客為比較基準時,滿意之遊客相較於不滿意遊客,每增加一單位滿意度時,願意重遊與不願意重遊之勝算比值為原來的80倍,即愈滿意的遊客其重遊意願愈高;結構方程模型分析顯示,滿意度亦顯著正向影響遊客重遊意願,當其他自變項效果為0時,每增加一標準差單位的滿意度,會增加重遊意願0.63至0.68的改變量,因此想要增加遊客重遊意願,必先有高滿意度的遊客。實證結果原有假設理論體系只能解釋部分的研究現象,未能完全解釋全部,從簡化模型中實證分別得知,「滿意度」對「旅遊頻度」之總效果為0.26;「滿意度」對「願意支付」之總效果為0.18。 滿意度模型存在高階因素,即以天然資源環境及公共設施所組成之基本滿意度因素;和以經營管理、服務品質及價格因素所組成之加乘滿意度因素,而基本因素對遊客重遊意願影響力大於加乘因素,要有高滿意度的遊客,應先保育現有天然資源環境,及滿足遊客在公共遊憩設施之基本需求,其次為外在環境經營管理與提升遊客服務品質。 在旅遊頻度模型,當裂解為三個外因潛在變項時,「人文」因素對「重遊意願」有顯著的影響力,且隨著再驗證模型樣本數的增加,三者均對重遊意願具有顯著的影響效果,即「自然環境」、「人文」及「價格」的滿意度愈高,遊客重遊意願亦愈高,均具有正向的解釋力,但仍以「人文」因素對「重遊意願」最具有顯著的影響力。在遊客願意支付模型,遊客個人花費可以有效預測未來願意支付,意即遊客願意支付受到遊客個人花費所影響,同時遊客滿意度正向影響其重遊意願與未來願意支付。 因素恆等性檢驗結果顯示,不同的性別及年齡在因素負荷量有顯著的差異,且從測定樣本套用到效度樣本的複核效化受到支持,驗證性因素分析模型是穩定而理想的,但樣本數要夠大。就整體模式配適統計值而言,遊客願意支付模型與旅遊頻度模型大致相等,且均能有效預測遊客之重遊意願,但遊客願意支付模型較旅遊頻度模型有較佳的解釋能力,而結合遊客重遊意願、願意支付、旅遊頻度與遊客個人花費之綜合模型,較能反應與配適實際調查資料,但仍有改善的空間。
Questionnaire method was used to investigate visitor's satisfaction and intentions to revisit in Hui-Sun Forest Recreation Area. By means of logistic regression, the primary variables that affected the intentions to revisit were the satisfaction about the natural resources, public and/or recreational facilities and price. The intentions of revisit affected by visitor's satisfaction has been identified, holding constant the effect of not satisfaction, the odds ratio of satisfaction was 80 times for that adds ratio of dissatisfaction, that means, the higher satisfaction, then the higher intentions to revisit. The same result has been found by using structural equation modeling, the intentions to revisit would change about 0.63 to 0.68 when visitor's satisfaction increased per standard deviation. The completely standardized total effects of “satisfaction” on “travel frequency” were 0.26 and “willingness to pay” was 0.18. There existed a second-order factors in satisfaction model, the basic factor and multiplier factor, the basic factor is more important and effective than the multiplier factor for intentions to revisit, that means we should preserve the natural resources and to satisfy the needs for public facilities from the beginning, and than provide a good environmental management and service quality. The “cultural factor” had more significant effects on the intentions to revisit when three exogenous latent variables on “travel frequency” model. All of three exogenous latent variables had significant effects when sample sizes increased in recofirmatory model. It means the higher visitor's satisfaction, the more intentions to revisit on the latent variables “natural environment”, ”cultural” and ”price”. On “willingness to pay” model, not only the visitor's expense could be effectively predicted, but also satisfaction could positively effect the intentions to revisit and the willingness to pay. Both the variables of gender and age had a significant difference on factor loadings after multi-group invariance test. The cross-validation has been supported when calibration sample extended to validation sample and identified that confirmatory factor analysis model were stable and ideal but the sample sizes should be large enough. Both “travel frequency” model and “willingness to pay” model could effectively predict the intentions to revisit, but the ability for model's interpretation, the latter were better than the former. The results also indicated that “integrated model” may be better fit with real data.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/65975
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