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標題: 水旱田利用調整計畫休耕、轉作與收購之經濟分析
The Economic Analysis of the Adjustment of Paddy Field and Uplands Utilization Program on Set-Aside, Rotation and Government Purchasing on Grain and Rice
作者: 陳吉仲
關鍵字: 農業經濟類
摘要: 台灣在面對自由化的農產貿易時,稻穀的生產量須減少因降低此自由化之衝擊,因此稻穀的生產結構須做調整,而因應此稻穀減產所需移轉出的面積之替代方案有休耕、轉作與造林等方式,然而這些方案的經濟誘因須大於種植水稻,否則將成效不彰。本研究將以數學規劃為工具來建立一經濟模型,透過此模型來比較出水稻與其它替代方案經濟誘因之差異。接著以糧食供需平衡、世界貿易組織規範、農業生態功能與政府財政支出等四點,來比較上述各方案之優缺點。由於未來幾年的稻米進口量可能會比談判時所承諾之數量還多,此將導致國內稻米價格大幅下降,為防止價格下降幅度太大,稻穀種植面積須由各替代方案來移轉,因此可透過上述之經濟模型來模擬出因稻穀價格下跌時所須移轉至各替代方案的面積。最後,根據不同的政策目標來提出各種替代方案之優先順序,以及為達成政策目標下,各替代方案中所須修正之方案內涵。
Production structure of rice has to be adjusted to avoid the economic damage due to free trade since Taiwan has joined World Trade Organization and will allow rice imported. Three alternative programs: Set-Aside, Rotation, and Foresting are allowed rice farmers to shift their cropping patterns to these alternatives. However, the economic incentive of these alternative programs has to be greater than planting rice in order to attract framers' shifting. The main purpose of this study is to use mathematical program skill to formulate an economic model for simulating the gap of economic incentive among rice and these alternative programs. Four aspects: Supply and Demand Balance in Food, Regulation of WTO, Functions of Ecological, and Government Budget are used to evaluate the advantages and dis-advantages of these programs. Finally, the price dropping of rice by free trade is considered in this study and the economic model could simulate the possible distribution of these alternative programs in acreage due to price change. The priorty and its adjustment of each alternative program is proposed according to alternative policy goals.
其他識別: 91農科-1.5.1-企-Q1(5)
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