Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/69293
標題: Estimating the number of Cubans infected sexually by human immunodeficiency virus using contact tracing data
作者: Hsieh, Y.H.
de Arazoza, H.
Lee, S.M.
Chen, C.W.
關鍵字: Cuba
epidemiology
HIV
AIDS
Latin America
sexual contact
Bayes
statistics
contact tracing
population-size
hiv
aids
program
model
期刊/報告no:: International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 31, Issue 3, Page(s) 679-683.
摘要: Background To estimate the yearly number of people in Cuba who are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and were infected through sexual contact but who have not developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Estimation was made directly from the yearly HIV seroprevalence data of the Cuban Partner Notification Programme from 1991 to 2000. Methods The generalized removal model for open populations is utilized for the estimation. The total number of known HIV-infected Cubans at each sampling time is used in the prior to provide more reasonable approximations. Results We estimated a yearly survival rate of 93%. The median estimates for the number of all living asymptomatic HIV-positive Cubans, infected by sexual contact, tripled from 714 in 1991 to 2170 in 2000. The number of unknown HIV-positive Cubans infected sexually is estimated to range from 174 in 1991 to 401 in 2000. Conclusions A consistent increase in the number of sexually infected HIV-positive individuals in Cuba from 1991 to 2000 is evident from the estimates. From 1996 onwards more sexually active homosexual/bisexual contacts were traced and consequently more sexually-infected HIV-positives were detected. A consequence of increased detection is the levelling off and subsequent decrease in the number of unknown HIV-positives during this time period. The estimation procedure is useful in estimating prevalent population sizes of epidemiological and public health interest.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/69293
ISSN: 0300-5771
文章連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/31.3.679
Appears in Collections:期刊論文

文件中的檔案:

取得全文請前往華藝線上圖書館



Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.