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標題: 台灣入侵植物風險評估系統之建立
Establishment of risk assessment system of invasive plants in Taiwan
作者: Ting-Yi Li
關鍵字: Australian Weed Risk Assessment
Alien plant
invasive plants
ROC curve
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摘要: 外來植物的入侵會衝擊生物多樣性與自然環境,危害嚴重者更提高農?漁牧業的成本,甚至影響經濟發展,因此如何有效地預防入侵植物造成的損失是日前國際間急於解決的課題。本研究主要在了解澳洲、美國、紐西蘭及英國各國政府現行植物檢疫標準與流程之優缺點及其可能產生之問題,參酌各種相關研究報告,經調整、修改、簡化及加權計分而發展出適合台灣使用之評估系統。本研究根據目前台灣國內25種已列為具入侵性之外來植物,與11種不具入侵性之外來植物,共計36種植物為對象,利用ROC曲線進行實測分析,比較各評估系統在預測台灣入侵植物之準確度。以澳洲雜草風險評估(Australian Weed Risk Assessment; AWRA)系統為主要架構,選擇較關鍵及易回答之10個問題進行進行系統簡化,並與回答全部49題之結果作比較,所得ROC曲線面積分別為0.94及0.99,準確度略降。經調整10題問題部分內容後,重新評估準確度可增至0.98。最終以修改簡化調整後之AWRA系統評估問題配合各問題加權計分,並以下限-1分及上限6分作為判斷是否為入侵或非入侵植物之標準,建立適用於台灣本國植物檢疫之台灣雜草風險評估系統。
Alien plant invasion threatens biological diversity and native environment, which impacts economic development in agriculture and forestry. To prevent introduction of alien plants into Taiwan and likely to become invasive species, establishment of the weed risk assessment (WRA) system predicting the invasiveness of alien species is very important. The main purpose of this study is to improve current WRA system in Taiwan. After comparing four WRA systems conducted by Australia, UK, USA and New Zealand, an appropriate candidate of WRA system for Taiwan has been proposed. By using 25 invasive plants and 11 non-invasive plants in Taiwan as database, the predictabilities of four WRA systems were compared based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis model, and the Australian WRA (AWRA) system was selected. Subsequently, AWRA system was simplified by answering 10 questions only, which are critical and easy to answer. A modified AWRA system consisted of 10 basic questions, coupled with a score weighting process, was proposed, which has a high prediction ability to distinguish the invasive plants from non-invasive plants in Taiwan.
其他識別: U0005-2811201416173730
文章公開時間: 2017-08-31
Appears in Collections:農藝學系



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