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標題: 氣候變遷對傳染病的潛在影響:登革熱在泰國為例
The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue Fever in Thailand
作者: Rueangborom Petcharat
Climate Change
Climate Change Scenarios
Dengue Fever
Panel data model
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摘要: In the past decade, many of researchers have suggested that climate variability have influenced on the epidemic of infectious disease especially dengue fever. In Thailand understanding the impacts of climate change on infectious disease have just received a little attention and using econometric attempts to identify the impacts of climate change on infectious disease has done by few studies. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to use econometric attempts to identify the impacts of climate variables and socio-economic on dengue cases in Thailand. To reach our objectives, panel data method is applied to estimate the impacts of climate variables and population on dengue cases during Jan. 1989 to Dec. 2009 in 76 provinces from four regions of Thailand. Furthermore, A2 and B2 climate change scenarios are then applied to projection the future change of dengue cases in Thailand. The results of projection by A2 scenario indicated that changing in climate conditions would raise the number of dengue cases in Thailand by 85,049, 200,777 and 337,332 cases in the year 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. Similarly, projection by B2 scenario indicated that changing in climate condition would also raise the number of dengue cases in Thailand by 106786, 213,475 and 274,409 cases in the year 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. The findings of this study suggested that understanding the effects of climate change on infectious disease is needed and we all responsible for reducing the impact of these changes in the future.
其他識別: U0005-2404201516112400
文章公開時間: 2017-07-30
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系



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