Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/89591
標題: 氣候變遷所導致颱風對臺灣及日本稻米災害損失之估計
Estimating the damage of Typhoons induced by climate change on rice sector in Taiwan and Japan
作者: Wan-Yun Wang
王琬昀
關鍵字: 氣候變遷
稻米損失
縱橫資料模型
計數資料模型
Climate Change
Rice Damage
Panel Data Model
Count Data Model
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摘要: 人類為了工業化追求進步,使得氣候變遷所造成農業生產相當程度的損失。然而研究氣候變遷對於農業生產的潛在影響是相當重要的,故本研究應用縱橫資料模型(Panel Data Model)估計颱風氣象因子與臺灣稻米損失價值之間的關聯性。結果發現,臺灣及日本稻米損失價值與颱風累積雨量及最大瞬間風速為均正向顯著關係,且最大瞬間風速對於稻米災害損失程度之影響明顯大於累積降雨量。利用實證結果可知,當累積降雨量增加1%時,全臺灣的稻米損失價值即增加0.356%;而瞬間最大風速增加1%時,損失價值則會增加1.644%。就日本地區而言,當颱風最大瞬間風速增加1%時,對於日本稻米損失價值會增加10.267%;當累積降雨量增加1%時,則損失價值會增加0.006%。根據本研究推測之因素可能為日本森林覆蓋率高達2/3,日本農業對於颱風累積降雨量有較完備的措施。 此外,針對全球暖化與熱帶氣旋之關聯性,首先以計數資料模型(Count Data Model) 及最小平方法(OLS)分別估計全球暖化現象與熱帶氣旋生成頻率與強度之相關,迴歸結果顯示,二氧化碳排放量與颱風頻率強度均呈現顯著正相關,實證結果更指出,當全球二氧化碳排放量增加一單位,則西北太平洋熱帶氣旋則會增加0.007399次生成。再依據IPCC(2007)推估出至2030年在二氧化碳排放量變異程度為40%-110%下,本研究推估每年平均西北太平洋熱帶氣旋生成頻率將會自平均的29.3次增加至31.527次到35.499次;而最大瞬間風速則會平均每年65.81節增加至77.472節到93.155節。
Agricultural sector has been significantly affected by climate change since global industrialization with huge fossil fuel consumption. This study estimated the effects of typhoon induced by climate change on the value of Taiwan and Japan's rice sector using econometric Panel Data Model and Ordinary Lest Square (OLS) approaches. The empirical results show that the typhoon accumulated rainfall and the maximum wind speed have significant negative impacts on rice product both in Taiwan and Japan. From empirical results, we come to the conclusion that when the cumulative rainfall increased by 1%, the value of Taiwan's rice losses that increase 0.356%; while the maximum wind speed increases by 1%, the loss will increase the value of 1.644%. We also found that when the typhoon maximum wind speed increases by 1%, the loss of value of the Japanese rice will increase 10.267%; and when the cumulative rainfall increased by 1%, the loss of value will increase 0.006% in Japan. On the other hand, the study also estimated the relationship between global warming and tropical cyclones based on Count Data Model and OLS. We found that the tropical cyclone frequency and intensity both are influenced by global warming phenomenon. The empirical results indicate that the increase of carbon dioxide emissions will increase the tropical cyclones frequency 0.007399 times. Therefore, how to mitigate the greenhouse gas emission to reduce such rice damage of typhoon induced by climate change is an important job.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/89591
其他識別: U0005-0706201510270500
文章公開時間: 10000-01-01
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