Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/89614
標題: 觀光景點轉型與旅遊發展之研究-以日月潭國家風景區為例
Research of sightseeing scenic spot reforming and tourism development-Take the Sum-Moon Lake National Scenic Area as the example
作者: Su-Chih Ho
何素枝
關鍵字: 日月潭國家風景區
ARIMA
結構轉變
Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area
ARIMA
structural transformation
引用: 中文部分: 1. 交通部觀光局編印(2006) ,台灣國家風景區。 2. 林依穎(2003),「國外旅客對中國大陸旅遊業需求預測之分析」,國立台灣大學國家發展研究所碩士論文。 3. 林茂文(2006),時間序列分析與預測-管理與財經之應用, 三版,華泰文化。 4. 交通部觀光局日月潭國家風景區管理處(2002),日月潭風景特定區觀光整體發展計畫。 5. 計量經濟學套裝軟體Eviews6.0使用說明 。 6. 閔辰華(2001),「從跨文化觀點探討九二一大地震後日本和美國旅客之研究-災難事故與旅客不確定性規避行為」,國立交通大學經營管理研究所博士論文。 7. 蔡政湋(2003),「國人出國觀光需求之研究-以美國、日本、香港、泰國為例」,朝陽科技大學休閒事業管理學系碩士論文。 8. 陳淑女(2000),「台灣地區國家公園遊客量之預測」,朝陽科技大學休閒事業管理學系碩士論文。 9. 張淑婷(2004),「來華旅客國際觀光旅館住宿需求及預測之研究-以日本、香港及美國為例」,朝陽科技大學休閒事業管理學系碩士論文。 10. 張家瑄(2005),「亞洲地區對台灣旅遊需求之預測」,國立台灣大學國家發展研究所碩士論文。 11. 謝政偉(2005),「在有限樣本下受限時間序列模型的單根檢定型-誤差表現」,國立中山大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。 12. 黃于珍(2007),「實質利率之結構改變-亞太地區之實證研究」,國立中山大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。 13. 彭惠琴(2003),「通貨膨漲、就業及貨幣政策與景氣循環之關聯性」,私立中原大學國際貿易學系研究所碩士論文。 14. 楊奕農(2005),時間序列分析-經濟與財務上之應用,初版五刷,雙葉書廊。 15. 楊雅婷(2003),房價結構性改變之檢測—以台北縣、市房價為例,台灣土地研究,第六卷第二期。 16. 陳旭昇(2007),時間序列分析-總體經濟與財務金融之應用,東華書局。17. 國家級風景特定區之規劃執行與管理事權專案調查研究報告,(2003)。 西文部分: 1. Andrews,D.W.K. (1993),'Test for parameter instability and structural change with unknown point,'Econometrica,61,No.4,821-856. 2. Bai, J. (1998), 'Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes,' Journal of Econometrics, 91, 299-323. 3. Bai, J. and P. Perron (2003), 'Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models, Journal of Applied Econometrics,' 18, 1–22 . 4. Bai, J. and P. Perron (2003), 'Critical values for multiple structural change tests,' Econometrics Journal, 6, 72–78. 5. Chen, K.Y. and C.H. Wang (2007), 'Support vector regression with genetic algorithms in forecasting tourism demand,' Tourism Management, 28, 215-226. 6. Goh, C. and R. Law (2002), 'Modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention,' Tourism Management, 23, 499-510. 7. Goh, C. and B.E. Hansen (2001), 'The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labor Productivity,' Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, 117–128. 8. Huang, J.H and J.C.H. Min (2002), 'Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism:the Taiwan case,' Tourism Management, 23, 145-154. 9. Law, R. (2002), 'Modeling and forecasting demand for arrivals with stochastic nanstationary seasonality and intervention,' Tourism Management, 23, 499-501. 10. Lim, C. and M. McAleer (2002), 'Time series forecasts of international travel demand for Austrslia,' Tourism Management, 23, 389-396. 11. Lim, C. and M. McAleer (2000), 'A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals Australia,' Applied Economics, 32, 499-509. 12. Lee, C.C. and C.P. Chang (2008), 'Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels,' Tourism Management, 29:1, 180-192. 13. GIL-Alana, L.A. (2002), 'Modelling international monthly arrivals using seasonal univariate long-memory processes,' Tourism Management, 26, 867-878. 14. Zeileis, A., F. Leisch, C,. Kleiber and K. Hornik (2005), 'Monitoring Structural Change in Dynamic Econometric Models ,' Journal Of Applied Economctrics, 20, 99–121
摘要: 日月潭是享譽國際的旅遊勝地,也是外國旅客到台灣必遊的景點之一。自九二一大地震重創後,2000年成立日月潭國家風景區管理處,從地方級的風景區,一躍轉變成為國家級特定風景區,為了解觀光客倍增計畫的成果,研究日月潭國家風景區管理處成立後,觀光遊客人數是否有明顯變化,對政府投入資源發展觀光的成果進行研究。本研究先以單根檢定判斷時間序列,續以ARIMA模型為基礎進行分析,並以Quandt-Andrews檢定及Bai and Perron檢定等方式對時間結構變化進行分析討論,就月份影響、季節性影響、結構轉變影響等進行分析並建立預測模型,並檢定殘差異質性後(ARCH檢定),對預測之成果進行評估。研究後發現日月潭風景區管理處成立後四年,旅遊人數之時間序列檢測出有結構性的轉變,並發現2月、9月及10月較有顯著之影響,經檢討日月潭地區所發生之影響旅遊人次之因素探討,發現2月(農曆春節)、9月及10月(萬人泳渡、日月潭嘉年華會)等因素確實對日月潭地區的旅遊人次造成影響,及結構性變動加上述月份影響之模型的預測效果較其他模型為佳等結果。總上所述,可發現日月潭地區由地方型之風景區轉型為國家級風景特定區有其正面意義,無論在旅遊人數的提升及活動的舉辦上。未來日月潭地區要走向國際化,可以將活動的時間再作微調,使旅遊人數能繼續提升或進行策略的改變,對於其他淡季時段開發新的遊憩活動,提供日月潭國家風景區管理處作參考。
The Sun Moon Lake is a world-renowned scenic spot and a must-see place for travelers. Since the devastation on September 21st, Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area Administration was established in 2000. It was promoted into a national scenic area from a local one. This research probes into whether or not tourists changed in number following the setup of Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area Administration as well as the results of the governments resource inputs into tourism development. In this research, Unit Root Test is adopted to determine the time sequence followed by an analysis with the ARIMA Model as basis. Then, Quandt-Andrews Test and Bai and Perron Test are adopted to analyze and discuss the structural transformation of time. As to the effects of month, season, and the structural transformation, a predictive model is established. After conducting Residual Heterogeneity Test (ARCH Test), the predictive results are assessed. It is found in the research that 4 years after the setup of The Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area Administration, the time sequence test of the No, of travelers showed structural transformations. It is found that the effects are more apparent in February, September, and October. After reviewing the influential factors affecting the No. of travelers in Sun Moon Lake, it is fond that factors such as the Lunar New Year (February), the ten thousand people swim across the lake and the Sun Moon Lake Carnival (September and October) indeed affect the No. of travelers in Sun Moon Lake. Moreover, the structural transformation and the predictive power of the model regarding the effects of 'month' are better than the other models. To sum up, it is discovered that the transformation of Sun Moon Lake from a local scenic area to a national one has positive significances in increasing the No. of travelers and event holdings. In order for Sun Moon Lake to become internationalized in the future, the event schedules can be adjusted to continue to increase the No. of travelers and strategic changes can also be undertaken. New recreational activities can be developed for off-season. Furthermore, these suggestions may serve as reference for Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area Administration.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/89614
其他識別: U0005-0907201510342100
文章公開時間: 10000-01-01
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

文件中的檔案:

取得全文請前往華藝線上圖書館



Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.