Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/92513
標題: 存貨與需求相依之網路團購決策模型
Online group-buying model with inventory dependent demand
作者: Hsiao-Han Lin
林筱涵
關鍵字: 網路團購
需求與存貨相依
group-buying
inventory dependent demand
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摘要: In 2008, the first group-buying website-Groupon comes out in the U.S. Because this kind of business model grows really fast, more and more similar group-buying websites start to sell group-buying products to share this market. Latter Taiwan followed the U.S to establish group-buying business company immediately. The market analysis data shows that in Taiwan 2010 the group-buying market size had already reached NT$ 7 billion and 160 million dollars, and market size continues expanding over time. For a seller using the group-buying website as a sales channel, it is important to figure out consumers' inner feelings about group-buying. In our research, we will construct a mathematical model and use data analysis to suggest the optimal decision policy. We can offer group-buying company's manager the decision-making criteria to manage products operation. Through some empirical observation, we found that in group-buying market demand will increase while inventory decreased. According to the characteristic of connection between demand and inventory, we derive online group-buying decision model to help group-buying company's manager to run their business better. Formulating an online group-buying decision model can help group-buying companies' managers to setup a better policy for products management. They can use this model to calculate the optimal sales horizon and stocking quantity as products control policy in order to achieve the maximum profit. Following that we use numerical analysis and sensitivity analysis to see how each parameter affects group-buying decision model. Analysis results show that the parameterdemand rate has the greatest effect on model. Group-buying company can stock more goods when market demand rate was greater, so that selling products on the group-buying website longer can gain higher revenue.
2008 年在美國出現了第一個網路團購平台 Groupon,由於其營收成長速度相當快,自此網路團購類似型態的網站紛紛出現,台灣也趕上這股熱潮,開始出現許多網路團購相關網站,搶食團購這塊市場大餅,資料顯示在 2010 年時台灣網路團購的市場規模已達到 71.6 億元,市場規模更隨著時間逐年擴大。 對於網路團購平台製造商業者而言,了解消費者對網路團購此一新形態商業模式之心理感受實屬必要,而本研究將進一步藉由量化模式的建立以進行數據資料的分析,使得有志於透過網路團購平台行銷之業者在經營及規劃平台商品配置時有一個決策的準則可參考。透過樣本觀察,本研究發現在網路團購市場中當存貨減少此一訊息的揭露會使得後續需求速率增加,本研究運用存貨與需求兩者之間具關聯性之特性,推導出一個網路團購的決策模型。現今網路團購製造商業者或可運用此模型以作為評估商品販售的參考依據。 本研究構建一網路團購決策模型,目的是讓網路團購製造商業者可以利用模型做初步的決策分析,當業者在規劃平台上各項商品販售期間時,應慮及商品在架上販售的時間,同時亦須知曉準備貨量多寡,運用上述在架上販售的時間以及備貨的數量以推估銷貨收入,扣除進貨成本與上架費用等開支,即可得知商品之最佳利潤。本研究以販售期間與進貨數量作為決策變數,寄望求解最佳決策組合,以達成網路團購製造商業者之目標,亦即利潤之極大化。此外,本研究運用數值分析以及敏感度分析的方式,以了解在網路團購決策模型中各參數對模型的影響程度,分析結果得知市場需求率之上限對於模型的影響最大,當商品的市場需求率越大,網路團購製造商業者可以多備貨,使得其在團購平台架上販售的時間拉長,賺取更高的營業額。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/92513
文章公開時間: 2018-07-15
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