請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/93188
標題: 金正恩時期北韓戰爭邊緣策略之研究(2011-2015年)
The Study on North Korea's Brinkmanship in the Era of Kim Jong Un, 2011-2015
作者: 翁鈺涵
Yu-Han Weng
關鍵字: 戰爭邊緣
北韓核武
金正恩
東北亞安全
Brinkmanship
North Korean Nuclear Programs
Kim Jong Un
North East Asian Security
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Lin, Tidus(2015/4/2瀏覽),〈娃娃學步還是邯鄲學步?-淺談金正恩的經濟改革〉,《洞見》,http://www.insight-post.tw/asia-pacific/20150210/11631. ________(2015/5/18瀏覽),〈飛彈連發的北韓:兼談金正恩的國家戰略〉,《亞太戰國策》,http://www.insight-post.tw/asia-pacific/20140422/7382. 大陸新聞中心(2015/4/5瀏覽),〈北韓大飢荒真相!美國援助幼兒糧食 優先供應軍隊〉,《今日新聞網》,http://www.nownews.com/n/2013/04/27/282650. 文龍(2015/5/5瀏覽),〈朝鮮半島緊張升級 專家為金正恩「把脈」〉,《大紀元》,http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/13/3/12/n3820182.htm%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE%E5%8D%8A%E5%B3%B6%E7%B7%8A%E5%BC%B5%E5%8D%87%E7%B4%9A-%E5%B0%88%E5%AE%B6%E7%82%BA%E9%87%91%E6%AD%A3%E6%81%A9%E3%80%8C%E6%8A%8A%E8%84%88%E3%80%8D.html. 王長偉(2014/12/15瀏覽),〈北韓外交高層:金正恩首要是經濟〉,《中時 電子報》,http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20130922002282- 260408. ______(2015/5/6瀏覽),〈美韓今結束「關鍵決斷」軍演 但「鷂鷹」持續〉,《鉅亨網》,http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20140306/KIU6KZOGDPEWI.shtml. 江迅(2015/5/13瀏覽),〈北京外交高官低調訪朝〉,《亞洲週刊》,https://www.yzzk.com/cfm/content_archive.cfm?id=1392867700989&docissue=2014-08. 吳志中(2015/3/15瀏覽),〈北韓核武問題與政權未來-以地緣政治的角度來分析〉,《台灣智庫》,http://www.taiwanthinktank.org/chinese/page/3/75/279/0. 周偉(2015/4/27瀏覽),〈剖析日本彈道導彈防禦系統〉,《中國軍網》,http://www.81.cn/jkhc/2014-11/24/content_6240245_2.htm. 奈伊(Joseph S. 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'Text of The Korean War Armistice Agreement,' Find Law, http://news.findlaw.com/cnn/docs/korea/kwarmagr072753.html. 'The Democratic People's Republic of Korea Outlook for Food Supply and Demand in 2014/15 (November/October),' Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, http://www.fao.org/Giews/english/shortnews/20150203DPRK.pdf. 'The Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation April 27, 2015,' United States Department of Defense, http://www.defense.gov/pubs/20150427_--_GUIDELINES_FOR_US-JAPAN_DEFENSE_COOPERATION_FINAL&CLEAN.pdf. 'The Interview: Activist Sends DVDs into North Korea by Balloon,' BBC News, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-32213949. 'The Korean War Armistice,' BBC News, http://www.bbc.com/news/10165796. 'U.S.-DPRK Bilateral Discussions,' U.S. Department of State, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/02/184869.htm. 'United States Security Strategy for the East Asia-Pacific Region,' US Department of Defense, file:///C:/Users/yuhan/Downloads/ADA298441.pdf. 'US and South Korea Wrap up 'Foal Eagle' military drills,' BBC News, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-22348488. 'US Opposes Formal North-South Peace Treaty,' RT Question More, http://rt.com/news/korea-nuclear-pyongyang-armistice-us-940/. 'Why Uranium and Plutonium,' Atomic Achieve, http://www.atomicarchive.com/Fission/Fission5.shtml. 'Juche Ideology,' Democratic People's Republic of Korea, http://www.korea-dpr.com/juche_ideology.html. Alagappa, Muthiah, 2015/4/40. 'North Korea Nuclear Test: Implications for Asian Security,' Pacific Forum CSIS, http://csis.org/files/publication/Pac1310.pdf. Albright, David, 2015/4/21. 'North Korean Miniaturization,' US.Korea Institute at SAIS, http://38north.org/2013/02/albright021313/. Avery, Emma Chanlett and Ian E. Rinehart, 2015/5/23. 'The U.S.-Japan Alliance,' Congressional Research Service, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33740.pdf. Bennett, Bruce W., 2015/4/21. 'North Korea's Third Nuclear Test: A sign of Weakness, Not Strength,' RAND, http://www.rand.org/blog/2013/02/north-koreas-third-nuclear-test-a-sign-of-weakness.html. Brunnstrom, David, 2015/04/26. 'United States Sending More Troops and Tanks to South Korea,' Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/08/us-korea-usa-troops-idUSBREA061AU20140108. Cha, Victor and Ellen Kim, 2015/4/19. 'North Korea's Third Nuclear Test,' Center for Strategic & International Studies, http://csis.org/publication/north-koreas-third-nuclear-test. ______________________, 2015/5/4. 'US-Korea Relations: Crisis Du Jour,' Center for Strategic & International Studies, http://csis.org/files/publication/1301qus_korea.pdf. ______________________, 2015/5/9. 'US-Korea Relations: North Korea's Rocket Launch,' Center for Strategic & International Studies, http://csis.org/files/publication/1201qus_korea.pdf. ______________________, 2015/6/7. 'UN Security Council Passes New Resolution 2094 on North Korea,' Center for Strategic & International Studies, http://csis.org/publication/un-security-council-passes-new-resolution-2094-north-korea. Choe, Sang Hun, 2014/12/8. 'North Korea Says a Long-Range Missile Test Is Now More Likely,' The New York Times, _____________, 2015/4/25. 'No Trading Nuclear Arms for Aid, North Korea Says,' The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/world/asia/north-korea-says-nuclear-arms-arent-a-ploy.html?_r=0. _____________, 2015/4/6. 'North Korean Official Cements Status in Beijing Visit,' The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/18/world/asia/influential-north-korean-meets-with-chinese-leaders.html?_r=0. _____________, 2015/5/4. 'North Korea Declares 1953 War Truce Nullified,' The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/12/world/asia/north-korea-says-it-has-nullified-1953-korean-war-armistice.html?_r=0. _____________, 2015/5/9. 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摘要: For a long time, the brinkmanship strategy has been closely associated with North Korea's external provocative behaviors. After coming to power, North Korean new leader Kim Jong Un has maintained the brinkmanship strategy inherited from his father without making any major adjustments. While many researches argue that North Korea's offensive behavior is a sign of its irrationality, a closer examination of such policy reveals a thoughtful rational choice; namely, the tactic of deliberately creating a risk to achieve specific political aims. In 2011, multiple factors - economic difficulties, political instability, the pressure coming from the US 'back to Asia' strategy, and the serious dissents expressed by Japan and South Korea - gave Kim Jong Un the incentive to continually carry out its brinkmanship strategy. North Korea's aggressive brinkmanship is still targeted against the US, but the US strong commitments to maintain the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula prevent Kim Jong Un from reaching his anticipated political goals. To cope with North Korea's third nuclear test of 2013, the US Obama Administration took tougher policies against North Korea, South Korean president Park Geun Hye decided to build robust military ties with the US, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe started to implement defense reforms, and China unusually imposed economic sanctions against North Korea. All of these solid policies and measures substantially constrained North Korea's behaviors and led Kim Jong Un regime so far not to take any more steps to maneuver the risks of crisis through the game of brinkmanship.
一直以來,北韓對外的挑釁行為和戰爭邊緣策略密切相關。2011年12月,金正恩上任後延續前朝的戰爭邊緣策略,表面上看似瘋狂作為的背後,實為經過評估的理性選擇,即運用操弄風險來達成政治目的。 2011年,北韓面臨國內經濟蕭條及政治不穩定、遭受美國重返亞洲之威脅,以及南韓和日本對北韓核武計畫的強烈反對,致使金正恩決定延續戰爭邊緣策略。此時,戰爭邊緣策略的主要目標仍是美國,惟美國捍衛承諾的決心堅定,導致金正恩預期的戰略效果未能達成。2013年,北韓第三次核試爆後,美國歐巴馬政府對北韓逐漸失去耐心,態度轉為強硬;南韓朴槿惠政府進一步深化與美國的軍事合作;日本安倍政府則推動國防改革;中國對北韓展開經濟制裁。上述相關國家的反應措施,牽制了北韓的行為,致使目前為止北韓未再進行將危機升高至戰爭邊緣的風險操弄。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/93188
文章公開時間: 10000-01-01
顯示於類別:國際政治研究所

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