Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/97266
標題: 訪日外國人之選擇與決定因素—日本觀光立國計畫之政策評估
Selection and Determinants of Inbound Travel in Japan-Policy Evaluation of NIHON KANKOU RIKKOKU PROJECT
作者: 莊閔文
Min-Wun Jhuang
關鍵字: 觀光立國計畫
旅遊政策評估
零截尾負二項
差異中之差異
NIHON KANKOU RIKKOKU PROJECT
tourism policy evaluation
zero-truncated negative binomial model
Difference in Differences
引用: 一、中文參考資料 蘇鈺雯、林惠玲,2012。「台灣觀光需求—停留天數與消費金額之實證研究」。《戶外遊憩研究》。25卷,1期,85-109。 林秀美,2009。「主題活動參與旅客之遊憩效益評估--負二項迴歸模型之應用」。碩士論文,佛光大學經濟學系。 羅珮玲,2016。「開放陸客來臺對國人國內旅遊行為之影響」。碩士論文,中央大學,產業經濟研究所在職專班。 陳家瑜,2010。「我國觀光發展政策之研究」。行政院研究發展考核委員會委託研究報告。RDEC-RES-098-008。世新大學。 劉以德,2016。《歐洲聯盟文化政策之脈絡與實踐》。台北,國立台灣大學出版中心。 譚克平,2010。「隨機化試驗在教育研究中的應用」。《教育科學研究期刊》。55卷,4期。69-95。 陳清檳、鄭博文、賴慧敏、蕭錫錡,2015。「大學畢業生取得證照與薪資所得-傾向分數配對法之分析」。《當代教育研究期刊》。23卷,1期。71-111。 毛志文、吳文傑,2016。「以差異中差異配對分析法檢驗雙元所得稅制度對經濟成長的影響」。《經濟研究》。52卷,2期。169-205。   二、外文參考資料 Alegre, Joaquıґn, and Llorenc Pou, 2006. “The length of stay in the demand for tourism,” Tourism Management. 27(6): 1343-1335. Alen, Elisa, Juan Luis Nicolau, Nieves Losada, and Trinidad Dominguez, 2014. “Determinant factors of senior tourists’ length of stay,” Annals of Tourism Research. 49: 19-32. Fishbein, Martine, ed., 1968. 1967 Readings in Attitude Theory and Measurement. New York: John Weily and Son. Fleischera, Aliza, and Abraham Pizamb, 2002. “Tourism constraints among Israeli seniors,” Annals of Tourism Research. 29(1): 106-123. Gokovalia, Ummuhan, Ozan Bahara, and Metin Kozakb, 2007. “Determinants of length of stay: A practical use of survival analysis,” Tourism Management. 28(3): 736–746. James J. Heckman, Hidehiko Ichimura and Petra E. Todd, 1997. “Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme,” The Review of Economic Studies. 64(4), Special Issue: Evaluation of Training and Other Social Programmes: 605-654 Kim, Hyun, and David W. Marcouiller, 2015. “Considering Disaster Vulnerability and Resiliency: The Case of Hurricane Effects on Tourism-Based Economies,” Annals of Regional Science. 54(3): 945-971. Laesser, Christian, and Geoffrey I. Crouch, 2006. “Segmenting Markets by Travel Expenditure Patterns: The Case of International Visitors to Australia,” Journal of Travel Research. 44(4): 397-406. Lim, Christine, 1997. “Review of international tourism demand models Original Research Article,” Annals of Tourism Research. 24(4): 835-849. Martinez-Garcia, Esther, and Josef Maria Raya, 2008. “ Length of stay for low-cost tourism,” Tourism Management. 29(6): 1064–1075. Paul R. Rosenbaum and Donald B. Rubin, 19833. “The Central Role of the Propensity Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects,” Biometrika. 70(1): 41-55 Thrane, Christer, 2015. “Students'' Summer Tourism: Determinants of Length of Stay (LOS) ,” Tourism management. 15: 65-71. Tobin, James, 1958. “Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables,” Econometrica. 26 (1): 24–36. Wynen, Jan, 2013. “Explaining Travel Distance during Same-day Visits,” Tourism Management. 36: 133-140. 三、網路參考資料 日本觀光立國計畫,日本國土交通省觀光廳。(http://www.mlit.go.jp/kankocho/kankorikkoku/kihonkeikaku.html) (2015/12/20) Economic Impact of Tourism 2011, World Report. World Tourism and Travel Committee. (https://www.wttc.org/research/economic-research/economic-impact-analysis/) (2016/8/26) Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2013, World Economic Forum. (http://reports.weforum.org/travel-and-tourism-competitiveness-report-2013/) (2016/8/26) Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017, World Economic Forum. (https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-travel-tourism-competitiveness-report-2017) (2017/7/3) UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2014, UN World Tourism Organization. (http://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284416226) (2016/08/26) UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2016, UN World Tourism Organization. (http://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284418145)(2017/07/12) 日本外務省。 (http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/)(2017/06/01) 「外国人観光客ゎ静岡県ズ殺到!ガソ意外ス理由ゾ?」,2015年9月29日。NHK。取自http://www.nhk.or.jp/shibu5-blog/100/228149.htm
摘要: 日本為了藉由提升觀光品質以帶動日本經濟的發展,在2012年3月30日於日本內閣會議通過了為期五年的「日本觀光立國計畫」。本研究應用政策評估模型中差異中之差異方法(Difference in Difference)及零截尾負二項模型分析訪日旅客的消費金額,發現其在「日本觀光立國計畫」實施前後並沒有顯著差異。 本研究實證結果發現如下。 (1)匯率變動對於旅遊消費金額的影響相當顯著。(2) CPI(交通)、CPI(娛樂)及 CPI(住宿)對於旅遊消費金額的影響也相當顯著,惟CPI(交通) 及CPI(住宿)之影響與預期不合,為正向影響。(3)「觀光立國計畫」政策施行前、後,實驗組為各單一國別之設定對全日本之觀光消費金額只有中國有正向顯著影響。然而,依照縣市別之消費金額再次進行分析後,實驗組為各單一國別之設定於部分縣市有顯著性的結果。原因可能與各縣市針對特定國別觀光客擬定之策略有關。由此可見在國家制定整體發展方向後,仍需地方依照自身特色,針對目標族群制定相關的策略才有成效。
In order to develope the Japanese economy by promoting the quality of tourism, Japan adopted the ' NIHON KANKOU RIKKOKU PROJECT' at the Japan Cabinet Meeting on March 30, 2012. In this study, Difference in Differences model and the zero-truncated negative binomial model are employed to evaluate if there is significant difference before and after the implementation of the ' NIHON KANKOU RIKKOKU PROJECT'. The findings of empirical results are as follows, (1) the impact of exchange rate changes on the amount of tourism consumption is quite significant. (2) The impact of CPI (traffic), CPI (entertainment) and CPI (housing) on traveling consumption is also significant, but the impact of CPI (traffic) and CPI (housing) is positive which is not in line with expectation. (3) Before and after the implementation of the ' NIHON KANKOU RIKKOKU PROJECT', there was no significant impact on the amount of traveling consumption in Japan. However, according to the preference specific consumption of analysis, some preferences show significant estimated coefficients. The reasons may be related to the strategies of the preferences and cities for specific prefecture visitors. It can be seen in the preference to develop the overall direction of development, still need to prefecture according to their own characteristics, for the target group to develop relevant strategies to be effective.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/97266
文章公開時間: 10000-01-01
Appears in Collections:應用經濟學系

文件中的檔案:

取得全文請前往華藝線上圖書館



Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.