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標題: 中共對台政策演變-以胡錦濤到習近平 路徑分析為例
China's Political Policy Evolvement to Taiwan - From Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping
作者: 洪裕憲
Yu-Sian Hong
關鍵字: 十九大
The 19th Communist Party Of China National Congress
A Family On Both Sides
1992 Consensus
One China Policy
One Country
Two Systems
Peaceful Reunification
摘要: 胡錦濤在上任之後,在2007年十七大及2012年十八大先後兩次提出的政治報告中,對台政策方針沒有明顯差異,兩次皆堅持「九二共識」、「一中原則」是建構兩岸關係和平發展框架。胡錦濤卸任前已取得兩岸全面三通、簽署ECFA及制訂《反分裂國家法》等政策,成為任內重要對台工作成果。 習近平2012年年底上台後,前期延續胡錦濤政策,推動兩岸交流亦獲取相當成績,惟2014年發生台灣太陽花學運,打斷了兩岸關係邁向敏感的政治深水區的期程,使中共高層面對台灣政治環境快速變化有所覺悟轉變。2017年習近平召開十九大中四次強調「一中原則,九二共識」,並提到「準國民待遇」、「兩岸命運共同體」、「兩岸一家親」、「心靈契合」的主張,顯見中共對台灣統戰手段進化。隨著兩岸局勢、台灣2018年九合一選舉及國際環境因素改變,中共對台政策又將會如何變化,值得予以關注。 本文透過歷史文獻分析法,瞭解中共近期胡、習兩位領導人對台政策思維、手段異同之處。也藉由分析中共十九大後對台政策的計畫目標、人事佈局及習近平對台重要發言,再加上國際學者專家的評論,來研究中共十九大後對台政策的未來可能方向。
After taking office in 2002, Hu Jintao submitted two political reports at the 17th National Congress of 2007 and the 18th National Congress of 2012. Between the two reports, there was no significant difference in the policy approach towards Taiwan. In the reports, he adhered to the '1992 Consensus' and 'One-China Policy' are the framework for the peaceful development of Cross-straits relations. Before Hu Jintao stepped down, he achieved several important works to Taiwan such as full restoration of the three direct links on both sides of Taiwan Strait, signed the ECFA, and formulated the Anti-Secession Law. Xi Jinping took office at the end of 2012, he continued Hu Jintao's policy in the early stage and achieved considerable progress in promoting Cross-Strait relations communication. However, 2014 Taiwan Sunflower Student Demonstration interrupted the building of deeper sensitive political phase and China leaders acknowledged the rapid change of Taiwan's political circumstance. In October 2017, Beijing held 19th National Congress. In the meeting, China emphasized the ' One China Policy', '1992 Consensus ' , ' Quasi-national treatment ', 'Cross-strait destiny community', ' A family on both sides', 'Compatriots on both sides of the straits advocate a spiritual fit'. It was obvious that China made evolution of the united front means in Taiwan. With the changes of international environment and the coming of 2018 Nine-in-one election , we need to pay more attention on how China's policy toward Taiwan will change. In this paper, through the historical literature analysis, I hope to know the similarities and differences between Hu and Xi's policy on Taiwan and to explore how their policy changed. By analyzing the goals on policy toward Taiwan and personnel layout dealing with Taiwan affairs made by the 19th Communist Party of China National Congress, Xi's important remarks on Taiwan and comments from international scholars and experts, I hope to find the clues of China's future policy on Taiwan.
文章公開時間: 2021-08-10
Appears in Collections:國際政治研究所



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