Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/10136
標題: 乾旱預警與應變措施規畫分析
The application of drought early warning system
作者: 林奕霈
Lin, Yi-Pei
關鍵字: 枯旱年;drought years;乾旱預警模式;抗旱期距;規線;drought early warning system;times;rule cave
出版社: 土木工程學系所
引用: 1. Fiering M.B., “A screening model to quantify resilience”, Water Resource Research 18(1), pp.27-32, 1982a. 2. Fiering M.B., “Alternative indices of resilience”, Water Resource Research,18(1), pp.33-39, 1982b. 3. Huang W.-C. & Yuan L.-C., “A drought early warning system on real-timemultireservoir operations” Water Resource Research, 40, W06401, 2004. 4. Huang W.-C. & Chou C.-C., “Drought early warning system in reservoir operation: theory and practice”, Water Resource Research, 41, W11406, 2005. 5.巨廷工程顧問股份有限公司,「氣候變遷北部地區乾旱預警與應變措施規劃分析」,2010 6. 王宗南,「水庫容量風險性設計準則之比較探討」,國立成功大學水利及海洋工程學系,碩士論文,2006。 7. 王鈺閔,「缺水指標與缺水風險之相關性」,國立中央大學土木工程學系,碩士論文,2009。 8. 李孟恩,「缺水風險指標之建立及其應用於評估桃園地區水資源系統」,國立中央大學土木工程學系,碩士論文,2011。 9. 林哲暐,「桃園地區乾旱時期供水風險之研究」,國立中央大學土木工程學系,碩士論文,2005。 10. 連婉余,「建立風險指標系統及其應用於桃園地區供水系統風險分析」,國立中央大學土木工程學系,碩士論文,2012。 11. 陳世偉,「水庫乾旱風險預警系統之建置-以新竹地區為例」,國立海洋大學河海工程學系,碩士論文,2009。 12. 陳紹維,「水庫乾旱風險預警系統之建置-以曾文-烏山頭水庫為例」,國立海洋大學河海工程學系,碩士論文,2009。 13. 陳伯豪,「石門水庫供水系統風險分析」,國立中央大學土木工程學系, 碩士論文,2011。 14. 經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所,「提升台灣水資源應用效率之研究」,2006。 15. 經濟部水利署,「北部地區水資源供應風險管理機制探討與建立-總報告」,2011。 16. 經濟部水利署,「水資源政策風險管理機制之研究」,2007。 17. 廖元熙,「水庫系統最佳營運及風險分析:以鯉魚潭水庫及石岡壩旬聯合營運為例」,國立台灣大學,碩士論文,1993。 18. 劉業主,「水庫最佳供水之缺水風險分析」,1993。 19. 蘇文瑞,「水資源供需指標建立之研究」,國立中央大學土木工程學系,博士論文,2000。 20. 經濟部水利署北區水資源局網站 21. 國立海洋大學,黃文政:臺灣地區重要水庫網際網路暨決策支援系統 http://wrm.hre.ntou.edu.tw/wrm/dss/ressm.htm 22. 經濟部水利署水利法規查詢系統,石門水庫運用要點:修正石門水庫運用要點 http://wralaw.wra.gov.tw/wralawgip/lawFileList.jsp?lawId=4028868122baccad0122cec4156c00c2&layer2No=4.0&relateType=29 23.鄭義仲「曾文水庫乾旱預警之標之研擬」,國立成功大學,碩士論文,2005
摘要: 
水是生活中不可缺少的重要資源,近年台灣常發生枯旱洪水事,產業轉型,用水結構改變,供水若不穩定會造成民眾恐慌及社會經濟損失。本研究之主要目的,是預擬大規模乾旱情境發生時的應變計劃。由於乾旱發展過程較其他自然災害為緩慢,為強化乾旱預警,以嚴密監控缺水地區及水庫蓄水、放水等供需狀況,以進行水源供需情勢分析、水源調度演算等,及時提出研擬因應乾旱情勢之對策。本研究以水庫設施之蓄水條件及入流量作為強化預警機制的基本參考因子,即依據水庫現況入流量、蓄水量、各計畫用水量、及入流量歷史紀錄等資訊,由水量平衡計算推估出未來某個時段內水庫蓄水量,在其各種枯旱情境及供水調配案略下的可能變化情形。本研究以翡翠水庫與石門水庫作為研究區域,選取枯旱年為研究年份。比較本乾旱預警模式的操作、現行水庫規線操作以及歷史資料的差異情形。
透過本乾旱應變模式實際操作結果,本研究中,分別採長(9旬)、短(6旬)抗旱期距之設定,經操作結果分析,採長期距其安全性較高,但預警發佈過於敏感,會造成過度警戒,以致於擾民現象,故建議採用6旬之短抗旱操作期距之模式為宜。

Water is vital resource essential to life. Apart from droughts and floods struck in recent years, Taiwan has been affected by the other elements leading to unstable water supply such as industrial transformation and changes of water consumption structure. Unstable water supply would cause not only public panic but also social and economic losses. This study aims at developing scenario-based emergency planning for large-scale drought. Because drought is a chronic problem with slower progress than the other natural disasters, strict reservoir monitoring would be helpful in strengthening drought warning system. In this study, we use reservoir inflow and storage conditions as the basic parameters to strengthen warning mechanism, such as the current and history record of reservoir inflow, storage capacity, and water consumption plan. By calculation of the water balance, we estimate the storage capacity of reservoir within a certain period of time in the future. Furthermore, we also predict the possible changes resulting from different drought conditions as well as water supply and distribution strategies
The research targets in this project are Feitsui Reservoir and Shimen Reservoir. The data from drought years are used to compare the operation of drought warning models in this study, and rule curve operation.
Through this model we can find that, selected long times (90days) operation was too sensitive, caused nuisance. So we suggest that choosing the short times (60days) operation in this drought early warning system.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/10136
其他識別: U0005-1308201316344900
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