Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/13103
標題: 應用時間序列建立降雨與地下水位變化之關係-以梨山地滑地為例
Applying Time Series Analysis to Study the Relationship Between Rainfall and Groundwater Level Fluctuation in Landslide Area
作者: 豪, 許友
chi, yo-hou
關鍵字: landslide area;地滑地;ARIMA(p;d;q) model;rainfall and groundwater;transfer function;時間序列分析法;單變量ARIMA(p;d;q)模式;轉換函數
出版社: 土木工程學系
摘要: 
梨山地滑地為一典型之地滑體,於民國79年連續暴雨造成台七甲線73
K+500處滑落而告交通中斷。由於降雨使得地下水位升高為造成本區邊坡
滑動之主因之一,所以降雨和地下水位間之關係為本文之研究主題,並針
對設有全自動監測系統之B1、B4、B5、B9滑動土體為分析對象。研究中採
用時間序列分析法(Time Series Analysis)分析降雨和地下水位變化間
之關係。利用各監測站觀測所得一小時雨量及一小時地下水位資料,先對
各滑動土體選取多場較大降雨建構單變量ARIMA(p,d,q)模式,再與地下水
位變化建立輸入(降雨)-輸出(地下水位變化)間之轉換函數(
Transfer Function)。並以單位歷線分析的觀念,假設一單位延時之單
位有效降雨輸入轉換函數,繪成地下水位變動歷線,進而選取代表滑動土
體之最佳轉換函數,並將各場降雨輸入,分析討論模擬地下水位變化之可
行性及結果。研究顯示降雨所造成之地下水位變動,與地表逕流歷線相似
,亦有一較陡峭上升段及明顯退水段,利用此一準則並根據轉換函數對原
始資料之擬合品質所選取代表滑動土體之轉換函數,均有較佳的地下水位
變動模擬品質。並可再進一步利用轉換函數檢討現地水文地質之差異性並
應用於地滑地預警基準之訂定,以使得監測資料發揮最大功效。

The goal of this research is to study the relationship between
rainfall and groundwater level fluctuationsin a landslide area.
Hourly data on rainfall in the monitoring station are applied to
form the ARIMA(p,d,q) model. Then, transfer function for each
pair of rainfall and groundwater level data are searched. Using
each transfer function, unit effective rainfall with a unit time
lag is applied to draw its hydrograph. According to these
hydrograph, transfer function can be chosen to represent the
characteristics of sliding block and then can be applied to
simulate the groundwater level fluctuation for with rainfall
data in the future.The investigation shows the groundwater level
fluctuation caused by rainfall is similar to runoff hydrograph.
There is a slope rising segment and apparent recession segment.
Applying the phenomenon, we can choose the most representative
transfer function which has better simulate quality for the
fluctuation of groundwater level. Furthermore, differences
between each transfer function founded can be applied to discuss
the difference in its hydrogeology and show its applicability
for building of the methodology in landslide judgement.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11455/13103
Appears in Collections:土木工程學系所

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